Keeneland Picks and Analysis: Pick 3 Play of the Day

Jockey Joel Rosario has already won his fair share of Keeneland races so far, and the April Meet is not even a week old. Check out this ticket to see where he lands next.
Jockey Joel Rosario has already won his fair share of Keeneland races so far, and the April Meet is not even a week old. Check out this ticket to see where he lands next.

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Keeneland Picks - Thursday, April 8, 2021
  • Keeneland Picks
  • Picks (Sean)
  • Picks (J.N.)
  • Picks (Neil)

Keeneland Picks

  • Race 1:
  • Race 2:
  • Race 3:
  • Race 4:
  • Race 5:
  • Race 6:
  • Race 7:
  • Race 8:
  • Race 9:
  • Most Likely Winner:
  • Best Value Play:

Picks (Sean)

  • 3-2-1-6
  • 7-2-6-3
  • 7-5-4-6
  • 8-2-1-3
  • 1-2-8-6
  • 3-12-5-4
  • 1-2-6-3
  • 7-9-8-2
  • 2-4-7-1
  • Lastchanceatglory (Race 3)
  • Bakwena (Race 6)

Picks (J.N.)

  • 2-4-1-6
  • 2-6-7-3
  • 7-1-2-4
  • 1-8-4-3
  • 4-7-5-8
  • 4-7-12-8
  • 4-1-2-6
  • 2-7-1-8
  • 5-1-8-7
  • It'sfiftyshadetime (Race 1)
  • Freddy Flintshire (Race 6)

Picks (Neil)

  • 6-1-3-5
  • 7-6-3-2
  • 5-7-6-4
  • 5-4-8-2
  • 2-1-5-7
  • 7-8-12-10
  • 1-2-4-5
  • 8-12-4-9
  • 7-4-1-6
  • Promise Keeper (Race 7)
  • My Dark Secret (Race 4)

A Keeneland Thursday spells that we are headed towards the weekend. You know what that means . . . it will be Lexington (G3) Day, and the Jenny Wiley (G1), which are 2 races we have previewed on our site.

Check them out! In the meantime, despite some weather that is rolling through which might take 2 of these races off-the-turf, it is a fine slate in which to handicap. Today, I have a juicy rolling Pick 3 that promises to offer some major value.

By the way, our ‘Cappers Challenge continues, and you can follow our progress as our Editor, Lead Handicapper, and Turf-man try to rack up as many Win-Place scores as they can! Join us throughout the April Meet for the very best that Keeneland has to offer!

Horse Racing Picks

ROLLING PICK 3…

LEG 1: (Race 3: Dirt, 1 Mile, Clm20k, 3+)

Today’s P3 begins in Race 3, and here we have a nice little group of Claimers going 1 Mile on the Main Track at Keeneland. We have our fair share of shippers here that have been running more than 2x at Turfway Park. I do not care for any of them, since I find that surface switch to be very difficult to predict. If the event was moving from the AW to the turf, I would be on board, but I do not have a read about how good these spats were at TP.

For my money, I want to be pretty bold out of the gate and “Single” the Paul McGee horse that is drawn in here. I know Lastchanceatglory #7 was on the turf last time, but the gelding clearly did not care for the event. Moving back onto a surface that he has had some success appears timely, and I am sure that Rafael Bejarano has a sense of what he can do, especially since he rode this son of Goldencents at Churchill Downs last fall. Should be a good way of kicking off the sequence.     

Selections: 7 (Single)

 

LEG 2: (Race 4: Dirt, 6½F, St.Opt.Clm10k-8k, F&M4+)

We find ourselves sprinting down the backside of the Main Track going 6 ½F. This race looks tougher to my eye since there are some runners who failed at higher levels, and are seeking some class relief. Others are making lateral moves, and though they did not score last out, maybe have a chance to right the ship.

My top selection in this spot is Joel Rosario’s mount, Diva Banker #1. A mare out of Central Banker, she is brand new to the barn of Ray Handal. His numbers are not too bad in these situations, though the sample is small. I do not mind the fact that under a different trainer he failed in that last race at Turfway. Before that, you can find some form. Rosario as an emcee is grand, and I fully expect him to be on or near the lead with that aggressive style of his.

Instead of just leaning on these connections, I also want to include a couple of others that should give us some coverage in case Rosario comes up short. Those are . . . Trickizar #3 (dropper), Miss Pinkerton #4 (lateral), and Radiantrithym #8 (lateral). That should do it!

Selections: 1/3/4/8 (4 Deep)

 

LEG 3: (Race 5: Dirt, 7F, Clm40k, 3+)

The finale to this P3 sequence is a tricky deep sprint on the dirt. Anyone of these 8 burners could grab this one. It makes sense that most will gravitate to The Predicament #3, since he is a gelding coming out of the Battaglia 100k at Turfway Park. In that race he was really overmatched, and at 56/1, he had no real chance to run. I don’t know if coming down this far is going to guarantee a win, and for that reason, I want to look elsewhere for some better value. I am not afraid to leave him off the ticket.

Instead, let’s go with Larry Demeritte’s Why Why Paul Why #4. I like the fact that this colt has 2 Keeneland tries under his belt, while he was a “runbacker” during the Fall Stars Meet in October. Those efforts were not too shabby, considering 1 resulted in a 2nd Place finish. Clearly, getting away from Turfway, and coming down to Lexington might suit. If jockey Julie Burke can put him in the proper position, then he might surprise everyone. What a price play at 15/1, or higher!

I want to include a couple of other entries who might be inviting considering their connections. Those include . . . Scabbard #5 (fav of mine), Copa #7 (Saez . . . duh), and Rye Humor #8 (another KEE guy). That should do it for this P3! Let’s cash a ticket, shall we?

Selections: 4/5/7/8 (4 Deep)

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.50 P3 TICKET COST: $8.00

Enjoy some action from Lexington, Kentucky! The tradition of Keeneland continues…

Keeneland Picks, Entries and Results

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