Keeneland Picks: Talented Novel Squall ships from Oaklawn on April 28

Keeneland enters its final week of racing for the April Meet. With 2 days left, you do not want to miss any of the action. As usual, Tyler Gaffalione (jockey), and Wesley Ward (trainer), sit atop the standings, but Irad Ortiz, Brad Cox, Chad Brown, and also Mike Maker, are giving chase in their respective categories. Should be a fun one to watch as we close out another great experience at historic Keeneland!

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Most Likely Winner: (Race 9: Polyglot #7, 4/1):

Follow me down the path on this one … a Juddmonte homebred … by Kitten’s Joy … 1st time starter for Chad Brown … ridden by Flavien Prat on the turf … against a field that appears inexperienced … At M/L odds of 4/1, this sounds like the makings for a debut score. Brown is particularly strong in spots like these, and we know the bloodlines speak to handling this surface rather easily. Prat’s ability to take on a chore like this one seems sound too … If I could get this kind of price, I would consider it an overlay. I do not bet 1st timers that often, but this one seems too good to pass up.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #7

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Whenthedawnbreaks #10, 10/1):

If you are looking for a price on this Thursday card, then you cannot go far wrong with Brad Cox and Florent Geroux on the grass. Lightly-raced, this filly by Ghostzapper comes to Central Kentucky after running in a pair of route races on the Stall Course down at the Fair Grounds. Breaking her maiden on debut was solid, and she followed that up with an impressive jump in class against a OC50kn1x group. She was 3rd … so that speaks to a building-block race. Cox isn’t a 2-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer for nothing … he gave her time off in February and March, and now she returns to the track with a solid work tab under her saddle. Against a field like this one … stretching out to 1 3/16ths … it could be the best play of the day!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #10 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 6½F, OC80n3x, F&M 4+):

Older females will be sprinting down the backstretch, hoping to get on or close to the lead … that seems to be the winning-type of trip these days, more often than not, at Keeneland. We shall see … I am sure that Wesley Ward’s Red Ghost #3 will be one to catch out of the gate. We all know that the leading trainer knows how to teach them to break, and coming in from Turfway, he is going to be a tough customer with veteran HOF rider John Velazquez in the irons. I am solidly against this dynamic duo, and instead, I am tickled pink to see John Ortiz’s Novel Squall #1 roll into town from Hot Springs. If you aren’t familiar with these green and black-colored silks, then it is time to sit-up and take notice. Ortiz does it right, and he has Barber Road ready to start in KYD148. This filly by Violence ran impressively during the OP Meet, and should build on her effort in the $200k Carousel S., where she ended up rallying for 3rd. That was at odds of 13/1, and even though she was not a match for the top 2 (Acting Out/Frank’s Rocket), I still think it showed us something. She has the ability to run late, and with a fast track, that could help her chances. Reylu Gutierrez is a rider with pluck, and an aggressive style. Count on him when the chips are down. Let’s use this runner on top, and the 3 outside entries (Thundering Creed #4, Skinny Dip #5, and Music City Star #6) … plus Ward’s sprinter … That should make for a pretty interesting ticket, and one that could be a nice payer! Here it is folks …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 1 w 3/4/5/6 w 3/4/5/6

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Enjoy another wonderful afternoon trackside! Best of luck on another run at historic Keeneland! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter … Horseracing_USA !!!