Keeneland Picks & Turf Pick 3 Betting Analysis for October 17
The second week at Keeneland concludes with some Sunday racing! With an 10-race card, it is sure to be a challenging one for even the most-seasoned handicappers.
If you are looking for a unique wager, then maybe you should try the Turf Pick 3 play. The $3 minimum wager will comprise the final 3 turf races of the day, and offer the low takeout of 15%. Should be a solid bet for all your grass fans out there.
At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the wonderful Keeneland pomp and circumstance! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned!
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Sunday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
$3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 Wager: (Races: 3-6-8)
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Leg 1: (Race 3: Turf, 1 1/16th, MSW84k, 2F)
This healthy field (by North American standards) of young fillies is taking on the turf and 2-turns. Not an easy start to the sequence, but it should be interesting to try and nab a winner just before the bell. The wonderful aspect of a “Pick” sequence is that you can always use the tote for the 1st Leg to try and get a handle on where the money is heading. Then you can make some hard and fast decisions about which runner(s) to back.
In this opener, I am particularly looking to take a stand against the heavy M/L favorite from the barn of Chad Brown. Haughty #5, a filly by Empire Maker, technically won her debut last time at Belmont in mid-September, but she was DQ-ed and placed 3rd. As the accomplished NYRA-based conditioner sends her to KEE, I am not sure that it is a foregone conclusion she will win … even with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. There are just too many factors in-play to accept such a low price.
Instead, for a little better value, why not look seriously at Brendan Walsh’s charge, Caitlin Diana #8? There is much to like here … she comes from a solid barn that regularly ships … well-bred by More Than Ready … and she gets a much improved turf rider in Ricardo Santana Jr. Her M/L price of 5/1 should hover around in that region, I should think. One other tick in the box is she has taken on some strong competition in Turnerloose and California Angel. Those lawn runners have potential, and I interpret Walsh’s to be no different. A solid pick to start this handicapping train …
1st Choice: 8
Backup: 5
Leg 2: (Race 6: Turf, 5 1/2F, ALLW88k, 3+)
When it comes to the grass sprinting game you want your porridge “just right.” I like a sprinter who doesn’t break from a rail post position, can rate close to the lead, and has a jockey aboard with the wherewithal to know when to say when. Looking at this race, it will be a different sort of challenge in that these are older males who have not won too many races in their lifetimes. Trainer George Weaver’s turf play in this spot goes to Competitive Saint #12. Breaking from the outside and avoiding the fray, should not be an issue for Tyler Gaffalione. Weaver is adding this savvy Keeneland racer, and putting the “Blinkers” on the 4-yr-old by Competitive Edge. That may assist with some focus, and looking over his back class, he should have the strength to carry this through after running in some tough OC80k Co. up at Saratoga. However, in a sprint where we know the Haggin Course has taken significant rainfall over the past 2 days, it is worth a look elsewhere.
In that vein, I landed on quite a long shot that will make some shake their heads. Despite this, I am undeterred … My top pick in this spot is Anna Meah’s Major Wager #10. This is a Keeneland boxcar horse if there ever was one. I am happy to see the former Arlington Park runner come to Central Kentucky, and even more pleased to see that Rocco Bowen will be aboard. I like his style of riding, and even though most bettors will back the “regulars,” I wouldn’t overlook this rider’s talent. A 4-yr-old gelding out of Peppered Cat, his mount has rattled off some nice grass wins during this cycle. He still has room to improve, and his price will be double-digits for sure. This one is a bet …
1st Choice: 10
Backup: 12
Leg 3: (Race 8: Turf, 5 1/2F, ALLW90k, 3F)
Ending the cycle with another turf sprint is no easy task. No one ever said that Keeneland races were simplistic to handicap. My sense is that most will lean on Wesley Ward and his entry because that is what people do. Illegal Smile #6 already has 9 runs under her saddle, and 1 win. Although she comes from a barn that is based at Keeneland, this will be her 1st try on the Haggin. Clearly, she has form and experience with sprint on the lawn. The Hat Creek filly started last year to brave “Non-G” Co., and though she has not won a race since last November at Aqueduct, there is no doubt that she needs to be near the top of the tote.
I like Ward’s entry, as Gerardo Corrales rides, but with a big field like this one, I would much rather take a shot with an entry that is a deal. I found just such a turf sprinter in Tom Drury’s Lady Edith #5. With some intriguing green pedigree lines that include, Street Boss and Lady Grantham, she is getting back to the stuff after competing in both the slop and the AW. This angle, of betting on a horse that is returning to something they at one point had success, is particularly inviting. At 12/1 and with Joe Talamo in the irons, this well-versed 3-yr-old is a significant overlay. That is a heck of a way to end this ticket!
1st Choice: 5
Backup: 6
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Horse Racing and Keeneland … in October? Is there anything better?