Keeneland Picks: Rolling Pick 3 Leaves No Stone Unturned

A Rolling Pick 3 comes to you from Keeneland, as their Wednesday card rolls out! Have a look at J.N. Campbell's analysis below.
A Rolling Pick 3 comes to you from Keeneland, as their Wednesday card rolls out! Have a look at J.N. Campbell's analysis below.

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The 3rd of 4 weeks at Keeneland arrives, and it is tough to fathom that we are already more than halfway through. It will be over before we know it! In that vein, let’s enjoy it while it lasts . . .

As we have throughout this April Meet, we have a complete rundown of the fields, with select analysis. Check it out! Today, I have another juicy rolling Pick 3 that promises to offer some major value.

By the way, our ‘Cappers Challenge continues, and you can follow our progress as our Editor, Lead Handicapper, and Turf-man try to rack up as many Win-Place scores as they can!

Join us throughout the April Meet for the very best that Keeneland has to offer!

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Horse Racing Entries
Keeneland Picks - Wednesday, April 14, 2021
  • Keeneland Picks
  • Picks (Sean)
  • Picks (J.N.)
  • Picks (Neil)

Keeneland Picks

  • Race 1:
  • Race 2:
  • Race 3:
  • Race 4:
  • Race 5:
  • Race 6:
  • Race 7:
  • Race 8:
  • Most Likely Winner:
  • Best Value Play

Picks (Sean)

  • 1-4-3-2
  • 5-6-4-7
  • 5-4-6-1
  • 8-6-7-10
  • 7-6-11-9
  • 3-4-6-5
  • 6-4-2-7
  • 3-8-4-5
  • Verified (Race 8)
  • Take Charge Ro (Race 5)

Picks (J.N.)

  • 4-1-2-3
  • 6-7-5-2
  • 2-5-6-7
  • 8-6-11-10
  • 3-6-12-4
  • 9-3-5-2
  • 3-4-7-2
  • 7-3-8-9
  • Sunny Isle Beach (Race 1)
  • Amazima (Race 7)

Picks (Neil)

  • 4-3-1-2
  • 5-6-4-1
  • 5-3-7-2
  • 11-6-8-4
  • 6-13-5-3
  • 2-5-1-9
  • 6-8-2-5
  • 6-3-8-1
  • Sunny Isle Beach (Race 1)
  • Baytown Warrior (Race 4)

ROLLING PICK 3…

LEG 1: (Race 5: Turf, 1 1/8th, ALLW81k, F&M 4+)

One of the “Rolling” P3s on the Wednesday card starts with an inviting turf event on the Haggin Course. Nothing like these full fielded ALLW C. races to really get the blood pumping. This is going to be a typical Keeneland mid-week hotly contested go on the grass. I could make an argument for most of the runners in here. There is no true prohibitive favorite here. Shug McGaughey’s Talking Book #4 (9/2), and Chad Brown’s Linny Kate #5 (3/1) look capable, but it’s not a forgone conclusion that either secures the “win.”

The real question is, which one of these other runners outside of the M/L favs is ready to take a step forward? Some come from overseas (Sunset Kiss #1, Tasaamuh #6, Vezpa #8, and Lake Lucerne #11), while others are ratcheting up in class (Take Charge Ro #7, Ballymore Star #12). The rest have tried ALLW Co. at least once, mostly to no avail. They are, Elke Do Jaguarete #2, I Hear You #3, Stand Tall #9, and Peter’s Kitten #10.

Out of these, I like Mike Stidham’s I Hear You #3. Even though this filly out of Street Sense did not show much promise last out at the Fair Grounds, she does have a record of running in some ALLW events that were full of some pretty adequate turfers. Her Keeneland record back in October was not terribly good, but last summer she won a nice MSW70k on the Haggin. With Adam Beschizza riding, she will have the chance to do some actual rating.

Very tough race to call, so hitting the “All” button isn’t specious reasoning as we move through this sequence.   

Selections: 1-12 (All)

 

LEG 2: (Race 6: Dirt, 1 1/16th, MC50k, F&M 3+)

The middle part of this trio presents us with a difficult Maiden Claiming event that is not for the faint of heart. Most of the betting public will gravitate to the M/L favorite Deemed Essential #5, since this Todd Pletcher-trainee finished 4th in a turf MSW50k event back at Gulfstream in mid-February. I am not convinced she is the best choice after going backwards in that event in the stretch. Sure, the class relief is welcome moving into these ranks, but I don’t think she has moxie. She may have been bred by the former Governor of Kentucky, Brereton Jones, but that doesn’t mean she will run well in her home state.

Instead, let’s focus our attention on 2 others that are sure to be better prices on the tote, and should have an even chance to win. Paul McGee is a Kentucky-based trainer with major ability to impact races that he chooses to enter. He doesn’t have an expansive stable like Pletcher, but he makes quality starts. Take Charge Patti #3 has a history of MSWs on the grass, and she is competitive across most of those efforts. I like the choice of Rafael Bejarano, who still has that sparkle that he exhibited a number of years ago at Santa Anita. Switching to the dirt should not be an issue.

The other entry I want to put on this ticket is High Fashion #9 from the Arnold Barn. They haven’t entered a slew of runners so far at Keeneland, but when they do, the results speak for themselves (8/2-1-3). This filly out of Union Rags took a bit of a rest after being at Gulfstream for 2 runs. Those MC50ks were tough, and she did not do too poorly considering she was off the bench. Brian Hernandez could make some noise with this one as the stretch arrives. She should be a good price too at over 5/1.

Going 2-Deep at this stage should give us a chance to score.  

Selections: 3/9 (2 Deep)

 

LEG 3: (Race 7: Turf, 1 1/16th, ALLW85k, F&M 4+)

The final leg of what promises to be a cracking good turf race, is this ALLW85k event. With several directions to go, you could pick some venerable grass milers like Mike Maker’s Stunning Sky #2 and Wayne Catalano’s Winter Sunset #6. I do not trust either of them to notch the victory, and for that reason, I want to play against.

I think I have a “Single,” and she comes in the form of Brendan Walsh’s Amazima #3. That might seem like a radical choice, especially since this mare is coming off the bench. We haven’t seen her since she ran at Indiana Grand, Ellis Park, and then finally, Churchill Downs back in September. I like Walsh’s ability to get them ready in a situation like this one. Since I am not concerned about anyone in this race, it is time to take a stand.

Out of Noble Mission (GB), which is a quality turf sire, this Steve Wilson-owned mare is a pro, through and through. Do not be surprised if she is sharp, with the crafty Julien Leparoux riding. He is always up for a score at Keeneland, a racetrack where he has enjoyed much success. Here is your “Single” to complete our sequence!

Selections: 3 (Single)

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.50 P3 TICKET COST: $12.00

Enjoy some action from Lexington, Kentucky! The tradition of Keeneland continues…

 

Keeneland Picks, Entries & Results

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