Keeneland Picks: Go the Distance in this Early Pick 3

The final week at Keeneland arrives, and unfortunately, we are heading towards Closing Day. In that vein, let’s enjoy it while it lasts . . .

As we have throughout this April Meet, we have a complete rundown of the fields, with select analysis. Check it out! Today, I will be playing the Early Pick 3, which promises to offer some major value.

By the way, our ‘Cappers Challenge continues, and you can follow our progress as our Editor, Lead Handicapper, and Turf-man try to rack up as many Win-Place scores as they can!

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EARLY PICK 3…

LEG 1: (Race 1: Turf, 1½, ALLW81k, 4+)

The Early P3 on this Wednesday card is a rare bird these days in North American racing. We just do not have many of them. Some of that has to do with the fact that our condition books are just not geared towards these types, and the other has to do with bloodlines. If you run longer over the generations, then they adapt to handle such an evolution.

For these reasons, I am particularly interested in backing a runner like Mike Maker’s High Tide #7, who appears to be coming into his 3rd start in the form cycle. Maker is particularly good at spotting in these distance turf races, and having Tyler Gaffalione ride again, is sensible. He has had another solid Keeneland Meet, and I like his ability to get a horse to ‘settle.’ This is not a giant field, so we can feel confident about a “Single” at this point. Onward!

Selections: 7 (Single)

LEG 2: (Race 2: Dirt, 1 Mile, Clm40k, F&M4+)

Here is a tough puzzle with a short field that to some might seem rather easy. You could just play the “bet Rosario” option, since he is the hot rider at the home of the forest green ‘n’ white. A “Pied Piper” in the saddle . . .  There is nothing really wrong per se, with his mount, the Ron Moquett-trained mare out of Will Take Charge—Subiaco #3. But I question whether she has what it takes to get home. Sure, she romped at the conditioner’s home base at Oaklawn 2-back, but that was at a different level. Her fitness is high, but I am going to go against this one.

Instead, let’s try Colby Hernandez’s ride, because there is much to like in Bentley Combs’ Yes I’m Evil #4. I am not sure if the Combs are heavy metal fans or relish a good Poe short story, but they have a seasoned mare who comes to Keeneland for the first time. After running primarily at the Fair Grounds in OC Co. races, she probably will enjoy this drop into this spot. She can easily handle the distance, and Hernandez may not be Rosario, but he has turned in some nice performances.

I like the “Single” angle here, and I am betting she will drift upwards to the 4/1 range. That is the issue with “leading riders,” they always take money when maybe they shouldn’t. That can play right into our hands.

Selections: 4 (Single)

LEG 3: (Race 3: Turf, 1 Mile, MSW79k, 3)

It is time to round out this Early P3 with a nice turf race going a mile on the Haggin Course. Talk about a tough one! Nothing like going 12-deep on the lawn with some lightly raced colts. From the standpoint of this horizontal wager, it makes sense to press the “All” button. That doesn’t mean though that I do not have some strong opinions. I am decidedly against the Chad Brown entry, Realm of Law #10. I don’t think he has the required recency to win this right off the bench. He has only one career race under his belt, and that was last September. Juddmonte homebreds always take money, but that is not a reason to blindly back them. If you want some true value (not the hardware store), then I would consider trainer Graham Motion’s Emphasize #4 and/or Ben Colebrook’s Sergeant Strwberry #2. They both offer value between 8/1 and 12/1. The former was a 1st time starter last out at Turfway, and he has some works over the Keeneland track for Eclipse Thoroughbreds. When these connections get together, they are hard to stop. The latter entry is from a scorching hot barn right now. I am sure backing Colebrook will be something many will do before post time arrives. He has 6 wins out of 16 starts, which is impressive. We shall see if Johnny V or Colby Hernandez can get their mounts home.

As for the rest of this well-matched field, including Prairie #8, Incitatus #7, Win Worthy #6, and City Tavern #11 also make a ton of sense. They all are ridden by accomplished jocks, and any one of them could excite in this grass event. It is going to be a rousing good time, as they turn for home!

Selections: 1-12 (ALL)

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.50 EP3 TICKET COST: $6.00

Enjoy some action from Lexington, Kentucky! The tradition of Keeneland continues…