Kentucky Derby Post Positions 2021

Ten times the winner of the Kentucky Derby has broken from the fifth gate. The last time was back in 2017 when Always Dreaming took out the race. This is the luckiest post in race history but in both 2019 and 2020 the horse allocated the 18th Post went on to reign supreme. Country House was awarded the win following the disqualification of Maximum Security and Authentic bested Tiz the Law a year ago (in 2020 the 18 post was the outside post with only 18 horses being entered).

Below is our table for how the Post Position draw has treated the field along with our overview of how the 2021 Post Position draw from Churchill Downs has shaken out...

As the draw for the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby went along with the one post remaining open, it is fair to say many people were fearing that favorite Essential Quality was set to draw the inside post. Eight horses have won from this post but none since 1986 and very few trainers wanted to see their horse get that position. Happily for EQ fans - the #1 post went to Known Agenda. Trainer Todd Pletcher was not happy with the draw on the live coverage from Churchill Downs but you have to play the cards you get dealt. A 6-1 price is likely to drift as bettors will no be enamored with that position.

Favorite EQ will break from the 14 post and that looks like a great spot. 2-1 seems a touch too short to me but with all that Mattress Mack money flooding into the pool - that might not be too far off when all is said and done.

He'll break with second-favorite and Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World just on his outside. The two-time turf winner is expected to bring the pace so EQ jockey Luis Saez can stalk nicely. The other potential early pace could come from Hot Rod Charlie. His team were clearly delighted as a huge roar went up from them when they got allocated PP #9. No-one has won from that spot since Riva Ridge in 1972 but he has every chance. He opens as the fourth choice on the Morning Line at 8-1.

Sainthood goes from the historically best Post Position. The Todd Pletcher trained horse opens at 50-1 so clearly Churchill Downs linemaker Mike Battaglia isn't a big believer in Post Positions in a historical context. History indicates that the second best position in PP #10 and Midnight Bourbon is probably a live long shot at 20-1.

Authentic and Country House both won from #18 in the past couple of years but if Super Stock can repeat then it would be one of the bigger surprises in recent times. The Steve Asmussen trained three-year-old opens as a 30-1 shot.

The only Post Position never to win the Kentucky Derby is #17 and Highly Motivated will start from that spot n Saturday. He's a 10-1 shot and will get plenty of attention from handicappers including yours truly. I like Highly Motivated a lot and think this is a great spot for him.

Who knows whether history dictates anything but it is sure interesting to speculate...