Kentucky Downs Picks & Late Pick 4 Betting Analysis for September 12: Closing Day

And just like that ... Kentucky Downs hits Closing Day! Though you blinked and it is over, we still have one more card to peruse ... Take a look and enjoy turf at its finest!
And just like that ... Kentucky Downs hits Closing Day! Though you blinked and it is over, we still have one more card to peruse ... Take a look and enjoy turf at its finest!

Closing Day at Kentucky Downs is here! We are on-hand to bring you the very best analysis for today's last Late Pick 4 sequence! Some excellent winners have come our way over the past week, so join us Sunday as we look to complete the Meet.

The turf should be firm at the European-style track that is located right on the southern border of Kentucky and Tennessee. Enjoy this unique turf festival while it lasts, as we have all 10 races covered on this special Saturday!

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Sunday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Horse Racing Picks

Race 7: Turf, 6½F, Ainsworth S., $500k, 2F

To kick off this tough final sequence on “Closing Day,” is a sprint that will have your head spinning. What we need to do is focus on formulating some strong opinions. In that vein, I particularly like the look of the 2-yr-old filly out of the barn of Todd Pletcher. Mystic Eyes #9 is well-bred out of Maclean’s Music and Cloudburst, which should help her running chances in this spot. As he did in a MSW80k up at Saratoga, John Velazquez gets aboard, and his riding of late has improved. He just seemed ice cold (not in a good way) up at NYRA signature summer track, and I would expect him to know what to do when the time comes—he is a HOF-er after all ...

I don’t know if I will put this runner on top because I also want to go way deeper when it comes to constructing this ticket. Setting a solid tone early can really make a difference. If you are looking for a few other alums from The SPA Meet, then be sure to include Tom Amoss’ Take the Backroads #7 and Wesley Ward’s Poppy Flower #8. The former was on the grass for the 1st time back on 4th August, and she did not disappoint out on the frontend. Amoss and owner Joel Politi are old hands at this spot, and I am sure this runner will be there near the end of this contest.

As for Ward’s entry, she is also one who likes to get to the lead, and enjoys holding it. That plan got away from her last time in the Bolton Landing120k at Saratoga (she ended up 2nd), so it will be interesting to see how she handles the KD grass for the 1st time around. The downside is that Jose Ortiz, the regular rider for this daughter of Lea, contracted COVID-19 and he will be unable to ride. Ward will recalibrate though, and I am sure he will have a capable replacement.

One last entry that deserves an “eye,” is Arnaud Delacour’s Koala Princess #2. She will be ridden by Joel Rosario, and he is inheriting a filly who was absolutely blazing in her debut at Monmouth back in August. That was a MSW55k that had a field of 10, so when it comes to price, she is an inviting 6/1. In the end, I think she will be my top selection, as her conditioner does not always get his due. What is for sure is that when you see the name of Peter Callahan in the ownership section on the form, that is a sign of good things to come. Here is a chance for these connections to see their charge take a step forward. I am on board …  

LP4 Leg 1: 2/7/8/9 (4-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager, WPS #2 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)


Race 8: Turf, 6½F, Nelson’s Green Brier Whiskey Music City S., $500k, 3F

We find ourselves in the midst of another tough “Non-G,” but opinions are a great catalyst. In this spot, I have a pair of runners in mind, and I think that Brian Lynch’s Tobys Heart #6 and Wesley Ward’s Illegal Smile #7 are tops. Each of these fillies have their advanatges. Lynch’s router, who is shortening up, is well-versed when it comes to the company she has kept. With Joel Rosario aboard, she should get a solid trip at Kentucky Downs. Although Jack Milton is a relatively young sire, he does have War Front standing behind him. As for Ward’s barn member, she is logical after many a run in “Non-G” Co. Starting last year, she competed in some tough Woodbine races, before coming to Aqueduct, then Churchill, and finally last out at Saratoga. Only losing by a head to Star Devine in a 120k contest could have easily gone her way. I like the fact that she gets Irad Ortiz again, and he can notch a score riding this one. She will be hanging around late in the game … my kind of cloud-bearer.

LP4 Leg 2: 6/7 (2-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Box, 6/7


Race 9: Turf, 1 5/16ths, Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon S., $550k, F&M 3+

In North America, we do not bear witness to many distance contests on the turf that include the numbers 1 5/16ths. It is unique, and begs the question … does it take a special runner to get this measurement? I am not so sure, but what I do know is that I want an entry from a solid barn, who has a history at KD. When it comes to those qualifications, I want Micheline #3 from Mike Stidham’s outfit in my corner. Her travel exploits are well-documented (Godolphin helps to combat her claustrophobia with a mobile stall), but what is even more important to note is that she is an incredible turfer, even though her recent record might not support that. What she needed was a couple of months off, and that is precisely what she got. Interestingly enough, the last time her conditioner sent her to KD (2020), she won by a neck in this very race … then named the Dueling Grounds Oaks 500k. The 4-yr-old filly’s jockey that day … Joel Rosario. Once he again he takes the mount, and I am sure she still has the ability to exhibit a nice turn-of-foot when it counts. Out of Bernardini, the opportunity is hers … and that is what makes her, in my mind, a “Single!”

LP4 Leg 3: 3 (Single)

Wagering Recommendation: $50 WP #3


Race 10: Turf, 1½, St.ALLW54k, 3+

Finishing off this ticket, we find ourselves in the weeds (that is not a turf racing joke, btw); rather, this is quite a tough race because of the company level. Would you rather have a runner who is dropping down, or who is moving up the ladder? I am not so sure which direction is exactly right … with such an expansive field of 12, there is no way to really know precisely which side wins. What we do know is that we need to nab a “stayer” who can settle early, and then make a nice big run down the lane in the end. When it comes to tip top selection, I especially like the look of Conor Murphy’s Frankincense #5.

The 7-yr-old gelding is not done yet, and he has the opportunity to run in a much longer contest than he is used to. That might be just the ticket in a spot like this one because he is bred through and through to “go long.” When you have the likes of Frankel (GB) in your blood, then there is a chance he can challenge this test. The best news is that veteran rider James Graham hops aboard, and he can make this happen, if anyone can. As for picks to close out this LP4 ticket, I am bullish on the “All” option. Talk sense … right?

LP4 Leg 4: 1-12 (All)

Total Ticket Cost LP4/.50: $48.00

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 5 w 1-4, 6-12 w 1-4, 6-12


The Kentucky Downs 6-day Meet reaches its apex ... Closing Day! Enjoy the finale of some fabulous turf racing …

Horse Racing Results