Kentucky Downs Picks: Mint Million for milers on September 3

The September Kentucky Downs Meet is already moving along that unique grass course at breakneck speed. Do not miss out ... it will be over before you know it!
The September Kentucky Downs Meet is already moving along that unique grass course at breakneck speed. Do not miss out ... it will be over before you know it!

Kentucky Downs Picks: Saturday, September 3, 2022

  • Race 1: 2-8-12-1
  • Race 2: 10-6-2-9
  • Race 3: 8-3-5-12
  • Race 4: 5-8-7-6
  • Race 5: 2-9-5-8
  • Race 6: 2-5-4-8
  • Race 7: 8-6-5-3
  • Race 8: 3-4-5-9
  • Race 9: 11-9-2-7
  • Race 10: 6-4-3-9
  • Race 11: 8-7-11-6
  • Most Likely Winner: Callie's Grit #8 (Race 7)
  • Best Value: Mr Dumas #6 (Race 10)

Kentucky Downs ... the pear-shaped turf track in the southern part of Kentucky near the Tennessee border ... is back in action for a limited Meet. With Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" races, plus a robust purse account for each and every contest, it is sure to be some of the best betting around! 

At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below. Don't forget to follow us on Twitter ... Horseracing_USA !!!

Horse Racing Picks
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All-Stakes Saturday at Kentucky Downs … Races 7, 8, and 10

Race 7: Turf, 1 Mile, Aristocrat Gaming Juvenile Fillies S., $500k, 2F

The young 2-yr-old fillies are going to take to the uniquely-shaped turf track at Kentucky Downs to commence the stakes action on this Saturday. I am pretty excited to see Joe Sharp’s Callie’s Grit #8 head to the post, and it is because her debut at Saratoga was full of promise. That was a tough MSW105k, but she handled it very well. Tyler Gaffalione was dominat on Thursday @KD, and his skill is always a major plus for any mount. This daughter of Maclean’s Music has Distorted Humor on the sire end, and Dynaformer in the background on the dam side. She can take a step forward, for sure. While we are on the subject of entries that are present, I also fancy Mike Maker’s Towhead #5 by Malibu Moon, and Brad Cox’s daughter of City Light—Chop Chop #6. The former is another Saratoga prodigy, but she was involved in a “non-wagering” event on 24 July. She returned in mid-August, and hit-the-board despite a rough trip. As for the Cox runner, Reylu Gutierrez guided her to victory to break her maiden, and the well-bred filly was awfully good, rating towards the front of the pack. Cox will have her ready for her 2nd career race, and we know that Gutierrez will be primed. This one is going to be quite a mile … all the way to the end!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Wheel, 8 w 5/6

 

Race 8: Turf, 1 Mile, Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile S., $500k, 2

The boys will get their chance to shine in this 2-yr-old battle going 1 mile on the turf. What a cash grab this is going to be for a lucky winner, and I would not be surprised if we got one that has a big price. Of course, Mike Maker has what is probably going to be the race time favorite in Really Good #4. A son of Hard Spun, he has strong bloodlines that speak grass, and Luis Saez really mowed them down on debut at Saratoga in a MSW105k. That race worries me a bit because I always think that it is difficult to duplicate such an effort in a spot like this one. Tyler Gaffalione will put on the silks for Paradise Farms, and that will lower his odds further. When it comes to a top selection, I want to back Kenny McPeek’s Mayfield Strong #3. The offspring of Will Take Charge do well on the lawn, and this colt broke his maiden on the stuff at Ellis Park in late July. Corey Lanerie isn’t my favorite jockey on this surface, but I have seen improvement in his decision-making over the past couple of years. Owned by the excellent Three Chimneys, expect this colt to be ready to take on some stiffer competition like we have in this field. Who doesn’t like a horse on the make? One other entry that looks useful is Peter Miller’s SoCal import … Castlerock #5. Ramon Vazquez doesn’t have a ton of riding experience on turf because he spends a good part of the year at Oaklawn, but he is going to get aboard an “on the engine” type that will probably try and wire the field. If Vazquez can control the pace, then he could steal this thing. What a contest this will be!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Cold, 3 w 4 w 5

 

Race 10: Turf, 1 Mile, WinStar Mint Million S., $1 million, 3+

It is time for the million! Are we ready horseplayers? With a healthy pot up for grabs, it will be quite a run down the backstretch and into that stretch at Kentucky Downs. Jockeys need to understand the tricks behind this undulating surface, and that can be an intangible when it comes to picking a winner. The classiest runner that has drawn-in is clearly Mike Stidham’s 5-yr-old, Pixelate #3. With over $1 million in earnings over 24 starts, he is incredibly reliable when it comes to finishing. If Florent Geroux can get him in the clear, after ranging up around the turn, then he could be the one to be there at the wire when it counts. I am not sure that he is going to be anywhere close to 5/2 when this race goes off, so I am interested in looking elsewhere for some value. I actually landed on either Brian Lynch’s Gray’s Fable #4 or John Ortiz’s Mr Dumas #6. The former is coming off a stellar score at Ellis Park, where jockey Mickaelle Michel (who made her U.S. debut this year at Churchill Downs) just won by a neck over her rival. Ortiz is going to try and have his charge ready, and I am sure Reylu Gutierrez will too. This pair make a strong team, and I look at both of these as runners that are exiting a “key race.” The “intangible” is Gutierrez. He will go through his routine of running and walking the course, and you can bet that he will have a plan of attack. I like his mount … by a nose …

Wagering Recommendation: $25/$50 WP #6

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The Kentucky Downs Meet is here! Enjoy some fabulous turf racing while it lasts … Be sure to follow us on Twitter … Horseracing_USA !!!

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