All the talk going into the Grade III Monmouth Oaks this Saturday will be about the least experienced filly in the field. Edie Meeny Miny Mo (#9) - The Miguel Vera trained daughter of two-time Graded Stakes winner winner Upstart will come into this race with an awful lot of hype that will likely crush her value in the betting pools. A $400,000 purchase as a two-year-old showed that her connections have high hopes for her and with two wins from two - the start has been promising. Saturday however sees a huge step-up in class and distance.
The former doesn’t concern half as much as the latter. None of what I’d call the premier three-year-old fillies have been entered and whilst the field has some good horses, I can’t see any slam dunk favorite on the card. Going around two turns for the first time is significant however and having watched both of her previous outings, she’s a poor starter who won’t break quickly. Victor Espinoza is flying in just to mount her, so they are all-in on this filly. Talent wise I think she’s the best of the bunch but do I trust her enough if her price slips from the 4-1 price on the Morning Line? I don’t think I do and I fully expect her to go off as the favorite.
On the Morning Line, Allworthy (#6) is a short price but I think she may drift to a more enticing number. A daughter of three-time Grade I winner Tonalist and siblings to Tapit and Medaglia d’Oro - both of whom have also won at Grade I level. Trained by Saffie Joseph with two wins on the spin over the mile distance, this filly may well get significantly overlooked at the windows due to the aforementioned hype surrounding Edie Meeny Miny Mo. This will be my top choice.
Four horses come here on the back of racing in the Delaware Oaks earlier this month. Crazy Beautiful won that race but is being pointed to the Grade I Alabama at Saratoga but Midnight Obsession, Leader of the Band, She a Hot Mess and Orbs Baby Girl are all here. It is the runner-up of that race - Midnight Obsession (#2) who is the favorite on the Morning Line but is my third choice.
On single tickets I’m playing Allworthy straight up with both that horse and Edie Meeny Miny Mo on multiple race tickets at Monmouth Park this Saturday.