Muniz Memorial Stakes Preview: Factor This should get brave on the lead

Brad Cox's Factor This tries to get back to his winning ways in the G2 Muniz Memorial
Brad Cox's Factor This tries to get back to his winning ways in the G2 Muniz Memorial

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Race 12 on the card is the Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes and this $300,000 Grade II race has one of the more open fields on the day. Can our in-house handicapper sniff out some value? His race preview and picks are down the page.

The Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes Race Card with all your M/L Odds is embedded below.

Me and Factor This (#1) have just never got our timing down. Despite being a win machine on turf and a top older horse I haven’t cashed a single bet on him, though every time I play against him he beats me. So when I tell you he’s my top pick in the G2 Muniz Memorial, take that with a rather large grain of salt.

The recent results may be frustrating after picking Factor This in his last three races, but I’m willing to keep the faith one more time as he catches a field without much early speed, which has been his undoing lately. He’s gotten caught up battling through monstrous splits in his last two races in particular, and prior to that he ran a decent race in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile even though it’s doubtful a mile is his best distance. The biggest thing with Factor This, in my opinion, is being able to dictate the pace. He’s also able to press the pace and win, but when allowed to set it, which should be the case here, he can get very brave on the lead. Four of his last five wins have come under such circumstances, and two of those occurred over this turf course last year. I don’t think there’s anyone in this field that’s capable of keeping up with him early, and if he is left to his own devices on the front end that’s going to spell trouble for the rest of this group.

A big reason Factor This may actually offer some value in this race, aside from his lackluster recent form, is the presence of Colonel Liam (#5). This horse is by no means a bum, but I do think his quality is going to be greatly exaggerated by his last out G1 win in the Pegasus Turf Cup at Gulfstream. Despite its designation the Pegasus Turf Cup was a far cry from a true G1, and even if Colonel Liam runs back to that effort (which I’m a little skeptical of in the first place), I don’t think he has to win this race. Due to his puffed up resume I believe he’s going to be a pretty big underlay.

Main:  1     Backup (priority):  4,5,6

Order of preference:  1-6-5-4

 

For all of our selections and Free Picks across the States this Saturday, then please check out our Free Horse Racing Picks page - linked to below.

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