Oaklawn Park Picks: Oiler drills down on January 28
Oaklawn Park Picks - Friday, January 28, 2022
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Race 1: 8-4-5-9
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Race 2: 6-2-12-7
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Race 3: 3-1-5-8
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Race 4: 4-6-5-2
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Race 5: 9-5-11-3
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Race 6: 5-1-4-6
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Race 7: 5-9-1-8
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Race 8: 3-4-11-1
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Race 9: 8-1-3-5
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**Most Likely Winner: Oiler #5 (Race 7)**
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**Best Value: American Chaos #6 (Race 2)**
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Most Likely Winner: (Race 7: Oiler #5, 4/1):
There is much to like in the background of this 3-yr-old colt by Uncle Mo. Not only is he well-bred, but trainer Steve Asmussen is dropping him down from MSW Co. into MC-land. That sounds sensible, especially considering that all 3 of his career races (KEE/CD/OP) resulted in missing the board each time. In for a tag of $50k, I would not be surprised if someone snagged him from Asmussen’s midst. With Ricardo Santana getting the call once again (he rode him in his 1st and 2nd races), one has to think he will be more than competitive. In other words, I think he wins …
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #5
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 2: American Chaos #6, 10/1):
Back on 15 January, I was convinced that this colt by Midnight Lute was able to improve after dropping from an OC80k into a Clm30kn2L … I was wrong … Francisco Arrieta tried to get the DiVito Barn runner to hold onto the lead in that race, but as the 2nd turn started, it was clear he was ready to throw out the anchor. Now, in for a $10k tag, maybe this is the appropriate level to try and get a score. The numbers look promising, and maybe some bettors will be so suspicious of a class drop like this, they will shy away. Arrieta is back once again, and I like the way he rides. There is talent here … he just needs a tactical change. Here is an idea … take him back a bit, then reserve enough for a big run. That could work for this gelding by Early Flyer … let’s spurn that sire’s name!
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #6 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/16th, AOC80k, 4+):
One of the best wagering opportunities across the country on Friday is this race … a high-level AOC affair going 1 1/16th at Oaklawn. It honestly feels like it could be a stakes race anywhere else in the country. With an expansive field of 12 that are drawn in here, you are sure to get a price horse, if you do some digging. I say that, especially considering that I see Brad Cox’s M/L favorite, Warrior’s Charge #11, as what I deem to be vulnerable. There is no question that this horse by Munnings is classy. After all, he is dropping back after running in the $200k Tinsel S. back on 18 December. He was well-behind the winner that day, Diodoro’s Lone Rock, and you can add that to a number of misses this horse has had over the course of the past year and a half. I know Cox will have a plan ready for Florent Geroux, this horse’s regular rider, but I do not think in a spot like this one, we should just hand the purse money over to the Eclipse Award-winning trainer just yet. By the way, this runner is part of an uncoupled entry, and you might want to consider Shared Sense #1 as a contender based on his class. Joel Rosario is the pilot, and we all know what he is capable of doing. This is another streaky shooter for the Kentucky-based trainer too. Should we toss both these from being our “key” horse? I am inclined to do so. You know with this trainer and pair of jockeys, that they are going to get over bet. Looking elsewhere, I am inclined to back a longer shot like Steve Asmussen’s Allege #3. Not only did he win his last race on this very track, but he did it on a sloppy surface. This son of Uncle Mo posted a strong speed figure on New Year’s Day, and it looks like he has the fitness level to game with some of these layoff runners. His latest work at 3F was just a maintenance, so he should be ready to roll with Geovanni Franco in the saddle. The SoCal rider is starting to settle down a bit, and get into the flow in Hot Springs. He is a talent. Let’s key this one, roll the Cox Team underneath, along with Mike Maker’s Mo Mosa #2 and newly-arrived Rob Atras and his entry, Olliemyboy #4. That pair looks classy enough to grab some of the minors … What a race! It’s only Friday … Oaklawn … figures.
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta Wheel, 3 w 1/2/4/11 w 1/2/4/11 w 1/2/4/11
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Enjoy another fab Friday trackside! Best of luck on another run at Oaklawn Park!