Oaklawn Park Picks & Analysis for March 4
Oaklawn Park begins another week of racing on Thursday with a nine-race program. Our in-house handicapper has combed through the card for winners, providing picks for every race and select analysis throughout the day.
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Thursday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Most Likely Winner: Southern Grayce (Race 8) - I’m not entirely sold on the quality of Southern Grayce’s last race, which was won by Abrogate over a muddy track, but the 81 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for the effort gives her some wiggle room against this field in the event she does regress. Of course, it’s also possible that she takes another step forward in just her third career start, which would essentially make her unbeatable in this spot, as the rest of this bunch would struggle to crack 70 on the Beyer scale.
Best Value: Abramax (Race 6) - Abramax needs to step it up for her new connections after a rather disappointing third-place finish last out at Churchill Downs, but her prior dirt form would give her a big chance in this spot at what should be a decent price. This filly has been rock solid since transitioning to dirt racing in the middle of last year. She quickly rattled off two wins on the main track and then finished third with a 71 Beyer in a live conditioned claiming race at Keeneland for double the price of this one. If she’s able to get back to that race, she’s a very likely winner.
Other Races of Interest: Race 2 - This is probably a case in which the morning line is horribly off, but I can’t help being suckered in by Payster (#9) sitting at a juicy 5-1. There is simply no one else in this field that I trust, so if Payster doesn’t end up favored it would be malpractice by the betting public. He’s been a bit erratic in his young career, though that could very well be a product of running without Lasix for much of it as he turned in easily his best race yet with the medication added in his last start. His connections smartly protect him in this spot and he should have an easy go of things from his wide post.
Race 3 - Awesome Charge (#4) isn’t going to be a big price, but I do think he’s very likely to break his maiden in this spot. He made his debut in a much tougher spot at Oaklawn in late January and ran quite well with some minor trouble. With a bullet work in the interim, it’s very possible he moves forward in his second career start, which would make him tough for this field to overcome.
*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*