Oaklawn Picks: Superb fields after weather break on February 11
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Oaklawn Park Picks - Friday, February 11, 2022
Race 1: 2-5-9-1
Race 2: 8-5-3-4
Race 3: 2-9-8-10
Race 4: 6-4-3-7
Race 5: 2-4-3-9
Race 6: 3-7-9-4
Race 7: 11-3-8-6
Race 8: 9-11-7-6
Race 9: 4-11-7-10
**Most Likely Winner: Ice Orchid #4 (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Stanley Market #11 (Race 7)**
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Most Likely Winner: (Race 9: Ice Orchid #4, 5/2):
Rolling into Hot Springs on this Friday … it is great to be back in action! Off the respite, we are ready to resume some wonderful handicapping. I like this “top pick” because not only do Ricardo Santana and John Ortiz make a great team, but this Shortleaf filly by Super Saver was impressive last time out in a MSW84k event @OP. Santana just missed the wire, as his mount ran out of real estate. With a couple of solid “freshenings” on the training track, I would expect this homebred to be a square bet, if there ever was one. I am sure she will point towards 6/5, but I still like her a bunch.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Stanley Market #11, 10/1):
If you are after value plays, then Oaklawn is the place to be. Now, that the winter weather has subsided, it means that Pat Pope and the Racing Office have a stockpile of spots to fill. The last time we saw this filly by Twirling Candy, it was back on 7 Jan. in an OC50k, 6F sprint. A claim for Randy Morse from Vicky Oliver back in November, she was clearly in over her head against the likes of Warrior’s Battle. Now, with this drop, plus the addition of Lasix, she is going to catch a major break. With veteran jockey, Jon Court, riding for the 1st time, I think she will have the chance to be at double-digit odds come post time. This is what we call an overlay … her price, running style (late), and this magnificent trainer … all add up to a great wager.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #11 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/16th, AOC100k, 3):
Here is one of those classic Oaklawn Friday “features” that is just so tough …but, it is also ridiculously fun to handicap. Going 2-turns is the game, and with a full field of 11. I am sure that the Brisset Barn entry, Barossa #4, is going to take significant money when the tote starts to flicker. Anytime a Bob Baffert trainee gets traded to another outfit, bettors always take notice. I suppose they feel like they are getting some kind of "inside deal." I like this son of Into Mischief for obvious reasons, but I can tell you right now that I will be playing against him. Not only has he not been seen since he “Showed” in the Los Al Futurity (G2) back in early December, but he has had little time to acclimatize to the Hot Springs environment. I much prefer entries like Steve Asmussen’s Long Crow #6, Ron Moquett’s Ruggs #7, Eddie Kenneally’s We All See it #8, and Brad Cox’s Zozos #9. Anyone of these runners has the ability to score a victory in this arduous OC100k. My sense is that Cox’s colt by Munnings could be on the “make,” and ready to take the plunge into a race like this one. This is a conditioner that works hard with these types, and finds places to spot them that bring out their best. Shipping is Cox’s bag, and he teams with Florent Geroux once again. The Fair Grounds debut, breaking his maiden 1st out, was a great start for this homebred. Let’s use him on top of our ticket, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the presence of a true long shot … Chelsey Moysey’s Vodka N Water #11. I picked this colt by Fed Biz last time when he ran on 14 Jan. in an OC80k (odds of 10/1). He was stellar with bug boy John Hiraldo in the irons. It looks as though he is being underestimated once again (M/L 12/1). Let’s not leave him out of the mix ... making sure to construct a ticket that gives us a shot to cash a nice one!
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 9 w 11 w 4/6/7/8
Enjoy another fab Friday trackside! Best of luck on another run at Oaklawn Park! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter … Horseracing_USA !!!