Churchill Downs Picks: Under the Twin Spires, opens on April 30 ... with new Matt Winn Turf Course
Churchill Downs Picks - Saturday, April 30, 2022
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Race 1: 3-5-1-2
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Race 2: 5-7-1-2
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Race 3: 1-4-3-6
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Race 4: 7-5-1/1A-4
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Race 5: 3-5-1-4
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Race 6: 4-3-6-2
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Race 7: 5-9-10-4
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Race 8: 6-9-10-2
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Race 9: 1-5-2-3
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Race 10: 5-6-1-9
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**Most Likely: Mucho Macho Momma #3 (Race 5)**
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**Best Value: Grandeur #7 (Race 4)**
The historic track in Louisville ... yes, we are speaking of Churchill Downs ... is set to host the 148th Edition of the Kentucky Derby! Before the party really gets started this coming week, they are hosting "Opening Night" this Saturday with a 10-race card that is sure to bring some value.
Our turfwriter J.N. Campbell will be with you every step of the way, as we head towards Derby Week, and beyond. One of the highlights coming our way is the new Matt Winn Turf Course, which opens with a brand new sodded surface. It is going to be impressive, and fun to handicap!
At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below. Don't forget to follow us on Twitter ... Horseracing_USA !!!
Most Likely Winner: (Race 5: Mucho Macho Momma #3, 7/2):
When it comes to Dallas Stewart at Churchill Downs … it is a match made in heaven. The wily conditioner might not always have the best “numbers” under the Twin Spires, but he is going to take his shots. I like this filly by Mucho Macho Man because she is dropping out of a Fair Grounds ALLW Co. contest that was mighty tough on the Stall Turf Course. Returning to the dirt @CD is something she should excel at … Last year at this time, she performed well on the stuff, and expect that to happen again. I like Rey Gutierrez in these spots because he has the ability to utilize aggressiveness, and given the “right mount,” he can score. If I get 7/2 then that qualifies as an overlay in my book.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #3
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 4: Grandeur #7, 8/1):
It might not look like it, but Rudy Brisset has a nice one entered in the 1st turf race on the new Matt Winn Course that looks pretty inviting. A gelding by Into Mischief, he took over the training duties on this one from Graham Motion last fall. I am not sure why the former accomplished conditioner never decided to put this one on the grass because his bloodlines look pretty solid. Brisset started working his new charge out on the Tapeta at Turfway, before shifting him down to Keeneland. I like the price off-the-bench at 8/1, and getting Florent Geroux is not too shabby a reason to back him either.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #7 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Dirt, 6F, Roxelana S., $160k, F&M 4+):
Looking at this dash that will be burning along the backstretch, I will be pretty interested to see who garners the prize of being on the top of the tote come post time. I suspect that it will be Al Stall’s Carribean Caper #5 (and yes, it is spelled that way) because this filly by Speightstown comes in with an undefeated record … yes, that is right too! She is 5/5 for the Louisiana-based trainer, and now is looking for more. Columbine Stable and WinStar Farm got together on a deal, and expect this one to take money. However, the layoff is a major concern. You just never really know when a 3-yr-old that had major success, turns 4-yrs-old. I want to try and beat her, but I am not going to do it with Ben Colebrook’s Club Car #4. This 6-yr-old mare has just never done it for me, and I have watched her go to pieces during a race one-too-many-times. I know she has talent, but instead, I am much more interested in backing Bernie Flint’s Euphoric #1. Talk about a speedball … This filly by Frosted is an absolute reactor, and she will be a square price around 6/1. Last time out at the Fair Grounds, she just got nailed at the wire by rival Cheetara #2. I think coming into this spot at Churchill, she has had some rest, and will have Gerardo Corrales in the irons. These Frosted runners are some of my favorites, and this is the spot where she can make some moves. She has a history of winning from that rail spot, and maybe it will be hot, hot, hot, down there … Here is the wager …
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Cold, 1 w 5
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Enjoy some racing under the Twin Spires! Best of luck on another run at Churchill Downs!