Pimlico Saturday: All-Stakes Pick 6 Analysis Offers Major Value
With Laurel Park having major issues with their Main Track, the Maryland Jockey Club and all involved were forced to switch operations early to Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore. This slate of races was important to keep on the calendar since it involves a major “Stakes” card.
Wanting to take advantage of it, J.N. Campbell has put together a nice P6 ticket that offers value and hopefully, some very nice long shots. Have a look below . . .
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PICK 6…
LEG 1: (Race 6: Turf, 1 1/16th, Dahlia S. $100k, F&M 3+)
The 1st leg of this sequence begins and ends with Graham Motion’s Crystal Cliffs #6. Last year, this filly came into the Maryland-based trainer’s midst after running a pair of races in the French countryside. Over the years, I have learned not to underestimate those types because they can be well-bred and have sneaky ability. Some think that if you don’t come out of Chantilly or Longchamp that you must not be much. Motion sent this one into Churchill last May and she won her US debut, and followed that up with a 2nd place finish in the Regret (G3) going a 1 1/8th on the Matt Winn Turf Course. Now, after the layoff, she is rested and ready to return to action. We all know what this conditioner can do with fillies that are graduating to the older ranks. She gets Sheldon Russell, and should be an easy “Single” on anyone’s ticket.
Selection: 6 (Single)
LEG 2: (Race 7: Dirt, 6F, Frank Y. Whiteley S. $100k, 3+)
When husband Sheldon (jockey), and wife Brittany (trainer), team up on the racetrack they form a powerful match against all others. Numbers don’t lie, and if you choose to spurn them, proceed at your own risk. This is also compounding when Ten Strike Racing is involved in ownership. They send Whereshetoldmetogo #5, which is a 6-yr-old gelding who has 25 lifetime starts with 10 of those being “wins.” He is the defending champ in this 100k race, and the former Brad Cox runner still has some left in the tank. I want to use him, but I really like is Scott Lake’s Press My Bets #2. Here is a 5-yr-old gelding out of Uncaptured who is on the make. He has graduated rapidly from running in OC25-35k types into an OC50k Co. race. That win was something that made me perk up because he did it in fine fashion with Carol Cedeno aboard. She gets back on for this try, and will easily be a double-digit price come post time. Better to nab one going up, rather than one coming down or an entry off-the-bench. This pair should do the trick!
Selections: 2/5 (2 Deep)
LEG 3: (Race 8: Turf, 1 1/16th, Henry S. Clark S., $100k, 3+)
We are almost through half the ticket, and it is time to get serious as we head to the grass course at Pimlico. I have a soft spot for that one because I have watched countless races go round and round on it. This race, the Henry Clark, is one to circle on the calendar, since by tradition it has some able-bodied turfers coming out of it. I want to try to go as deep as possible, since I have some stronger opinions later in this card. My top selection is not the favorite, the Godolphin homebred, Pixelate #4. Don’t get me wrong, I like this horse quite a bit, especially since he has contested some extremely difficult fields before showing up at Pimlico. Mike Stidham has this one pointed in the right direction, as he drops out of the Muniz Memorial (G2), which was a very difficult race at the Fair Grounds against Pletcher’s ace, Colonel Liam. I think he might let down the betting public at such a short price. Let’s use him, but look for some value elsewhere.
In that vein, how about a turf router like Shug McGaughey’s Dreams of Tomorrow #8. This colt out of Speightstown has some sprinting ability through that sire, but the dam (Sabbatical) is about routing all the way. Shug is a master “wheeler,” and he clearly thinks the 4-yr-old can come right back on short rest after running in that Aqueduct high-level ALLW82k event earlier this month. I think the reason he finished 3rd in that race was that Jose Ortiz didn’t settle him early, when he needed to relax. In the end, he didn’t have the strength towards the end of that race. If Forest Boyce can ride this route like it is on the dirt, he might be able to work out a win by being close to the engine. Rating just off sounds like an even better plan.
As for a few others, I also like Jonathan Thomas’ Corelli #1, Arnaud Delacour’s hard-knocker, Eons #7, veteran Ballagh Rocks #11, and former TAM Columbia S. alum, Doc Boy #12. And yes, I am leaving off Tom Morley’s Ninety One Assault #5 because he never wins outside of Louisiana. That should do it!
Selections: 1/4/7/8/11/12 (6 Deep)
LEG 4: (Race 9: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Weber City Miss S., $125k, 3F)
It is time to start the turn towards home, and we are going to swing forward with a field of fillies that will be routing on the dirt. If you had to turn to a trainer who knows these types well, there is no one better than Kenny McPeek. He has the already seasoned Olviaofthedesert #5 coming into this one with some major form at her disposal. Last year, as a 2-yr-old, she was up against some tough competition in races like the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland, and the Trapeze 60k at Remington Park. She didn’t always hit the board, but her 2021 campaign along the Oaks Trail has been acceptable. A pair of 4th place finishes in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn and the Bourbonette Oaks 150k at Turfway, were just the sort of thing that prepared her to show up in this spot.
I want to include her, but I also want to add one other before we move on. Trainer Tom Amoss gets a say in this contest, and he well could have the favorite in Littlestitious #7. This filly out of Goldencents has a fab record in 100k “Non-G” efforts. At Delta Downs and at Laurel Park, she won by using her late gait down the lane. That is something impressive on dirt, and should give her an extra weapon against the others in this field. If there is not a ton of speed to run into, then she should could have a time of it. However, Sheldon Russell is an accomplished jock, and he should be able to put her in a good spot like he did last time. Don’t ever count out Amoss because he has the ability to go mano a mano (that means hand-to-hand, btw) with McPeek.
Selections: 5/7 (2 Deep)
LEG 5: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Federico Tesio S., $125k, 3)
There are many paths to the Preakness Stakes (G1), and this is one of them. Runners who win here, then have a shot to get to the 2nd portion of the Triple Crown. This group has 8 that will be going 1 1/8th on the Pimlico Main Track, which is a unique occurrence since this race is normally held at Laurel Park of late. I want to nab a “Single” in here, and I think I found one in Maythehorsebwithu #8. The Russells have this one going in the proper direction, and I think I feel strongly about that, even though he missed last time out in the Private Terms S. 100k. In that contest he was bested by Shackled Love #7, but it easily could have gone the other way. Gary Capuano’s runner wrestled the lead away from Russell’s, and maybe having the outside path was the reason. I do not think he is going to be able to get away with that again in this spot. For me, this is a “Single,” as I choose the runner with the most back class. Thus, giving me the means to save some money. Win, win . . . oh, and win for the Russells! P.S. I realize I am not including Hello Hot Rod #5. This is not an oversight, I just think that the layoff since winning the Jimmy W. 100k @AQU dating back to late January is going to be a major concern!
Selection: 8 (Single)
LEG 6: (Race 11: Turf, 5F, King T. Leatherbury S. $100k, 3+)
The final leg of this P6 sequence is a turn-and-burn event on the grass going only 5 furlongs. That is how they do it in Baltimore, and it is going to be tough because we do not have much of a sampling since the scene just shifted there the other day. Normally, I want to find someone who can break swiftly and make the lead with relative ease. Looking at horses drawn towards the rail is normally not the best idea. They get caught down there, and it can be difficult to make it out. I want to nab one more “Single,” and I think I have one in Claudio Gonzalez’s Completed Pass #8. This seasoned gelding knows what it is like to come off-the-bench, and he is a professional, if there is such a thing. I actually like to play these types because they can fire, and fire hard, if the situation is right. Being drawn towards the outside gives him a chance to get clear, but based on his PPs, he does not need the lead. When he ran in the Laurel Dash Stakes 100k (1st) and Jim McKay Turf Sprint 100k (2nd) last fall, he was awfully tough. (Interesting side note: the winner in the McKay that beat him that day on the frontend was J. Ortiz’s Hollis, who just won a really nice ALLW race at Oaklawn Park this past week). Sometimes when these older horses progress, they can really mature quickly, and that makes them ready to roll. This is a conditioner with major ability, and I like his back story. Jockey Angel Cruz knows this entry, and can get him home, given the opportunity.
Selection: 8 (Single)
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$1.00 P6 TICKET COST: $24.00
Enjoy some action from Baltimore, Maryland! The tradition of Pimlico continues…