Pimlico Picks & Analysis for May 13: Frosted Indian tries the turf in Race 7
Preakness Week in Baltimore has arrived! Before it is upon us, they have a solid eight-race card. Once again, Pimlico Racetrack will serve as the scene. What a week in Thoroughbred racing it has been to this point! As usual, our turf-man has you covered with selections for the whole card and additional analysis of his strongest opinions throughout the day.
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Thursday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Most Likely Winner: (Race 2: Sheriff’s Kid #3, 7/5):
This filly out of Exaggerator has just the right number of races under her belt for trainer Michael Trombetta. You do not want one that is too lightly-raced because that means they are lacking experience. Last time out, this 3-yr-old improved with a 2nd place finish at Laurel Park back in March. After some rest and works, she looks ready to make her debut at Pimlico. It should be a win for Victor Carrasco.
Wager: $100 Win, #3
Favorite I Am Against: (Race 5: Jestful #10, 2/1):
Heading to the turf, there have been some nice Virginia breds over the years that have wowed crowds in all sorts of settings. While I think Jestful #10 is a nice horse, I am against backing him in this particular situation. The layoff is a concern, but so is the fact that I have a much better odds selection. Look at Surfing #7 from the barn of Claudio Gonzalez. He is one of those geldings who only has a race under his belt. The pedigree is by Verrazano and Swimming (IRE), and that makes me think he can handle the Pimlico turf. J.D. Acosta is an able jockey, and he should be able to work out a proper trip. Major chance for this one to get home, at what hopes to be more than a square price on a New Jersey bred … Mid-Atlantic strong!
Wager: $2 Exacta Cold, 7 w 10
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Ragtime Suzy #5, 6/1):
Here is a sprint going 6F on the Main Track in Baltimore. I tried to find a big shot on this card, but this was the best I could come up with considering the circumstances. Over the past number of years, this mare, who is trained by Claudio Gonzalez, has been fairly consistent when it comes to hitting the board. She spent the first 4 months out of this year running against tougher ALLW Co. Dropping back is sensible, and she should be able to win a race like this one. Her fitness is high as she gets J.D. Acosta to ride. Gonzalez runs a nice outfit, and I like his stock. His value continues to rise.
Wager: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS, #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Turf, 1 1/16th, St.Opt.Clm32k, 3+)
Going to the Gonzalez well once again, I see no reason why Frosted Indian #6 cannot make the switch to turf, and move up in the ladder in this OC32k event at Pimlico. This bunch is pretty weak when it comes to grass experience. Last time in an MC40k, the colt was stellar up towards the front for most of the race. The result was a solid win as he broke his maiden. Gonzalez had just claimed him, and the score was evidence that the horse needed a switch. Ratcheting back up the class scale will not be easy, but I like the versatility of the offspring of Frosted. He is the next great sire in my opinion, and I will be backing this one with a WP wager for sure. I am thinking that he should drift a bit … maybe towards 5/1? We can hope …
Wager: $25-W, $50-P, #6
Enjoy the Pimlico Thursday card! It is almost time for the Preakness! Best of Luck!