Royal Ascot Day 3 Picks & Analysis for June 17

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 3: Thursday 17 June

Over 5 days of racing at Ascot, on full display will be the very best that turf racing on the flat has to offer.

As Her Majesty the Queen presides over what is known as the Royal Meeting, we at HorseRacing.net/us have you covered when it comes to signature “tips.”

Below, you will find select analysis of some of the biggest contests to be determined during this highly-specialized event. Be sure to check the weather reports as the week progresses, as it will have a major impact on the “footing.”

Race 1: Norfolk Stakes (G2), 5F, 2

Another Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” contest for your enjoyment; this one gets you passage to Del Mar and entry into the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Young 2-yr-olds who are just coming into their own will be lining up in pursuit of Ascot fame and fortune.

We will see if Wesley Ward can get on track with either Lucci #9(11) or Nakatomi #10(4). The former will undoubtedly serve as the “favorite,” especially since his trainer has amassed quite a win record at R.A. Getting Johnny V to ride could prove fruitful, even if the short price isn’t. As for the other Ward entry, I like the Qatar Racing gelding after he won handily back at Keeneland. Ward conscripts Oisin Murphy to board his speedster, and I like his chances.

Of course, in a spot like this one, you simply cannot ignore the Euros. Aidan O’Brien’s trump card is the promising turfer by the name of Cadamosto #2(2). He will end up being second choice, and a two-way with him might not be a poor plan at all. The offspring of No Nay Never (a Ward trainee during his racing days) can handle this field, and do not be surprised if he sweeps up late for the win. Improving on that debut at Dundalk is entirely conceivable. I am not wholly against O’Brien here, but I will tell you that I am for his son Joseph’s play.

The young O’Brien sends Andreas Vesalius #1(14) (named for a 16th c. physician …) into the Norfolk S., and it could very well result in a win. This horse is what I call a "gradual improver,” as a quick glance over his form yields a positive appraisal. Recently, this colt has found ways to combine graduated efforts with a score at Naas back in mid-May. That looks inviting to my eye, and I am hoping an O’Brien vs. O’Brien matchup will go my way!  

Wagering Opportunity: $25/$50 WP, #1

Race 2: Hampton Court Stakes (G3), 1 Mile, 1F212yds

Here is a lower-level Group race that looks intriguing from the standpoint of angles. Most will choose to back William Haggas and his 3-yr-old, Mohaafeth #3(3). Certainly, 3/3 in 2021 looks tempting, but I question whether that last score was legit. It wasn’t that large a field, with only 4 drawn in, and I think he is going to regress a bit.

Thinking about other bets, what about Charlie Appleby’s One Ruler #1(1)? This colt was up against some major players in both his 2021 starts. One was the 2000 Guineas (G1) and the other was the Cazoo Derby (G1). Facing winners like Poetic Flare (who just won at R.A.), and Adayar, makes one think that class will out. William Buick rides for the “Boys in Blue,” and he had a win on the card back on Tuesday. Personally, I think he is the premier jockey in the world … two cents.

One other runner that I might consider using in the exotic wagers is Aidan O’Brien’s Roman Empire #7(2). Owners Tabor, Smith, and Mrs. Magnier are a firm that doesn’t mess about. This Galileo missed in York last time with Hollie Doyle in the saddle, but it wasn’t her doing. The runner just didn’t fire when the time came. Expect an improvement of some sort. I don’t think it will be a win, but Ryan Moore might have something to say on that point. Stay tuned, because this has all of the makings for a wide-open affair …

Wagering Opportunity: $25/$50 WP, #1 and/or $2 Trifecta Box, 1/3/7

Race 3: Ribblesdale Stakes (G2), 1 Mile, 3F211yds, 3F

This race is a classic distance test (by American standards), and should be yet another fabulous betting opportunity. It is a foregone conclusion that Juddmonte’s own Noon Star #11(8) will take significant money as the ground softens due to rain on Thursday. I would expect James Doyle will have his hands full trying to get this one home, as he has never had the pleasure of riding her. That could be a disadvantage, despite his extensive experience. Sir Michael Stoute does things properly (she was 2nd to Snowfall in the Musidora S.), so I am sure his instructions are focused and informative.

Still “Royal A” necessitates taking a longer look at some bigger prices. For instance, have a gander at Loving Dream #9(12). She was 2nd to Stoute’s filly two-back, and though she missed at Lingfield in the Oaks Trial in early May, I fully expect that the Gosden Barn will have her firing on all cylinders. She will be a stupendous price at double-digit odds.

Finally, let’s move on to my top selection. Without further ado … I am bullish on John Gosden’s other entry, who will not be as hefty a price as her stablemate. Gloria Mundi #7(2) is Bjorn Nielsen (he owns Stradivarius) homebred with much to like already on her resume. She just missed against a late-running Eshaada #6(11) in the Newbury Fillies’ Trial Stakes. Facing her former rival here at Ascot, I think she has room to flourish. Frankie Dettori is back aboard for yet another run, and he can make the difference. When it comes to the deep stretch, there is no one better.

I want to use all of these runners, plus Aidan O’Brien’s Divinely #4(6), who was 3rd in the Cazoo Oaks (G1) behind budding superstar Snowfall. If we can get at least one price, then we could cash a nice little ticket.

Wagering Opportunity: $2 Exacta Box, 4/6/7/9/11

Race 4: The Gold Cup (G1), 2 Miles, 3F210yds, 4+

One of the signature events of Royal Ascot arrives … this is the one that matters the most. Hosting the Gold Cup in the winner’s enclosure puts the connections into the stratosphere. Group 1 glory is afoot … Entering the area is one of the greats, and he needs little introduction. Stradivarius #4(8) is one of John Gosden’s most accomplished runners of all-time. That is saying something! A 3-time winner of this race, the now 7-yr-old will try to put even more writing into the history books. He once again gets the yellow-capped Frankie Dettori to ride. At a short price for Bjorn Nielsen, can he do it again?

I am not so sure … yes, his recent bow over the track at Ascot resulted in a “win,” which bodes well when it comes to the freshening category. At some point though, every runner has to face facts … age cannot be defied.

In that vein, taking a stand against the senior “chalk” makes perfect sense. The thing is, an “each way” wager simply will not do. For my money, the choice in the Gold Cup is the one who scored at Meydan in their version of this race. Subjectivist #12(4) for trainer Mark Johnston has had this target circled for a bit. Winning that contest was an “Afterword,” to a stellar 2020. Returning to Ascot, he should be a 4-yr-old who is coming into his own. Regular rider Joe Fanning once again answers the call, and I am ready to see this colt take his place among the very best distance specialists at 2m in the world. There, I said it, time to anoint the next gen of deep routers on the lawn at Royal Ascot.

Wagering Opportunity: $100 Win, #12

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Enjoy the very best that the 5-day event at Royal Ascot has to offer! Best of Luck!