Royal Ascot Day 5 Picks & Analysis for June 19

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 5: Saturday 20 June

Over 5 days of racing at Ascot, on full display will be the very best that turf racing on the flat has to offer.

As Her Majesty the Queen presides over what is known as the Royal Meeting, we at HorseRacing.net/us have you covered when it comes to signature “tips.”

Below, you will find select analysis of some of the biggest contests to be determined during this highly-specialized event.

As the final day arrives, be sure to check the weather reports as the week progresses, as it will have a major impact on the “footing.”

Race 1: Chesham Stakes (Listed), 7F, 2

As we kick off Saturday, it is closing day at the Royal Meeting, and leading off is the Chesham. Some budding runners have won this “Listed” one over the years, and out of the 10 going forward it really is a toss-up. The issue is “experience” because with only 1 race under their belts, how good are any of these young ones? I am not sure. Since form is a bit of a dry hole, looking at barns and speed figs might be the only viable stats to consult.

Certainly, backing Aidan O’Brien’s entry, the speedy Point Lonsdale #4(7) makes sense. This colt was sharp in breaking his maiden at The Curragh, winning in impressive fashion by more than 5 lengths. If you think that he can take a step forward off of that performance, then that is your play. At roughly 6/5, he would be a deserving favorite if there were more PPs to go on. There are not … yet. This is a classic O’Brien runner who is super-talented and well-bred out of Australia. But that doesn’t mean the colt wins.

Looking to others, I continue to be a supporter of Charlie Appleby’s international rise to stardom over the past decade. He has a young one going well, and maybe he is worth a hard look. Godolphin owns New Science #3(4), and he won at Yarmouth over good ground to break his maiden. I don’t know that victory is that much poorer, from a class perspective, than O’Brien’s entry—the speed figs look comparable. Appleby’s conditioning abilities, led by his expansive Team Blue are a worthy match for any opponents. Let’s use him …

As for a 3rd player in the Chesham, we have quite a triumvirate coalescing around Reach For The Moon #5(2). How about The Queen, John Gosden, and Frankie Dettori? That is some unbelievable experience. I am always amazed by how Dettori takes an average-priced horse, rides at Ascot, and gets the win. He is always up for a major moment of competition, and rises to the occasion so many times … even during this Meet!

As for Her Majesty, her continued presence both as host and as a participant is impressive to say the least. When her silks race down that lane, it speaks to her commitment and passion for the sport. There is no more worthy supplicant. Though her entry here was 2nd to Appleby’s charge, that doesn’t mean much as they line up again here. Dettori makes the difference … just ask Gosden about it.

Wagering Opportunity: $2 Trifecta Box, 3/4/5

Race 2: Jersey Stakes (G3), 7F, 3

Energy is building as we head towards the “feature” of the day—Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes. The Jersey S. is an opportunity for young turf turfers to ply their trade over the hallowed ground at Ascot. With the standard full field of almost 20, this should be yet another superb betting opportunity, that is if you believe Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt is vulnerable. If you do, then there are a number of directions to go in. That runner, Creative Force #4(4) appears stout, mind you. He is already 3/3 in 2021, graduating through the lower ranks. Strong and stable, he is just another “hitter” in the Godolphin lineup with potential. A win here would really put him on the road to “Group” stardom. It will not be easy, even with the backing of “Blue.”

The same could be said for the other uncoupled entry. Appleby has Naval Crown #12(15) also on the roll call. Compared to his stablemate, he is a runner with all sorts of PPs. Never really out of the money, this Dubawi 3-yr-old is consistent as can be, and it will be interesting to see how he responds after finishing 4th to Poetic Flare at the 2000 Guineas (G1) back in early May. After a few weeks off, he should be ready to fire, and could be very dangerous. Getting William Buick in the saddle, one of the world’s leading riders, is promising. A horse that can handle the switch from Meydan back to the UK, is impressive indeed. With such a wide-open affair, the modus operandi in situations like these, is to look for a nice price.

I continue to be bullish on the jockey skills of Holly Doyle, and Archie Watson is a trainer who always comes to battle at R.A. They are together with Mehmento #9(13), and this is a colt with some intriguing back class. He started out 2021 with a promising 2nd to Chindit at Newbury in a Group 3. That was impressive coming off-the-bench, and a survey of that field includes a sturdy bunch. I think Watson got a tad greedy when he hoped that the colt was ready for the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains at Longchamp (included St. Mark’s Basilica/Poetic Flare/Sealiway, just to name a few). It was a bold play that resulted in an 11th place finish. Still, experience is just that … put it in your knapsack because you never know when it might come in handy. This could be that moment …

Taking on Charlie Appleby and Godolphin is never a cinch, but I want to stand against.

Wagering Opportunity: $2 Exacta Wheel, 9 w 4/12

Race 3: Hardwicke Stakes (G2), 1 Mile, 3F211yds, 4+

As if we had not built enough steam, this Group 2 arrives with much fanfare. This race is a tough nut to crack because we are talking about an eclectic mix of older runners. Some have fabled experience from before 2021 when they were young and spritely, hardly knowing what was instore on the racetrack. Learning to settle, rate, and fight traffic late were school lessons that they had to learn quickly in order to compete at the highest levels. Enough waxing Campbell, get to the analysis … Eh?

In my humble estimation the Hardwicke is trainer Aidan O’Brien’s race to lose. I know that sounds brash and not terribly interesting, but it seems highly logical. Here is why … First, he has a bevy of runners entered, and they all have pros. As we speak, international totes are leaning towards Broome #2(9) with Ryan Moore at the ready. After recording 3 wins in a row this year as a 5-yr-old, he missed at The Curragh, failing to capitalize as the favorite. That gives pause … questions abound … was it just an off-day? Was Helvic Dream at 8/1 much the best? Hmm … all concerning. Most will draw the proverbial line through that tepid performance. I am taking it as a sign to move on through the O’Brien Hardwicke roster.

As a pair of others, I have fancied both Tiger Moth #13(15), as well as, Mogul #9(3). I put them in order of preference because the former had an excellent 3-yr-old campaign—capped by a 2nd place finish in the Melbourne Cup (G1). After a nice long winter break, O’Brien got him through the regime of the gallops and sent him into the Irish Gold Cup (G1) a little less than a month ago. In the end, his stablemate #2 bested him … the “Tiger” ... was last. Coming into Ascot, some form needs to be addressed, and the Galileo colt has much to improve on. He is a pass for me. Likewise, O’Brien’s #9 is a miss too, I am afraid. He has attended some monster races at Meydan, Longchamp, and Epsom (class counts), but there wasn’t much effort put forth as he was 7th, 3rd, and dead last, when it was all said and done.

You might at this point ask, “Well, who do you like?” Japan #7(12) … I like him because he has a strong mix of back class, is now a 5-yr-old coming into his own, and he has some recent efforts that look to be useful. In a “workout” at Chester (aka G3), he smoked the field in fine fashion, as he should. Coming into the Coronation Cup (G1) at Epsom (the same race #9 skunked), he was a favorite of many, but didn’t have the turn-of-foot when it counted. Leaning on the experience under his saddle is what makes him so special. He is more than capable of handling this field. Looking back to 2020, he faced some of the toughest in the turf middle distance division. Names like Ghaiyyath, Enable, Magical, and Addeybb come to mind … Case closed, this O’Brien purple/white-clad router wins … Time to head to the windows …

Wagering Opportunity: $100 Win, #7

Race 4: Diamond Jubilee Stakes (G1), 6F, 4+

The last of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge races is upon us, signaling the final Group 1 of the 2021 Royal Meeting. On the line is a trip to Del Mar to compete in the November Turf Sprint, which should be another competitive affair. Hold on to your top hats, “racing fans,” because there is much at stake.

This sparkling “Diamond” is going to pit a good field against another, but for some, it may end up being a two-horse race between Starman #10(13), who is trained by Ed Walker, and Dream Of Dreams #2(3) from the stable of Sir Michael Stoute. Both have 2021 races under them, and they came out winners. Walker’s charge was up against Roger Teal’s Oxted in the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes back in early May, and he bested that speedster at odds of 5/1. That is saying something, especially since Teal just celebrated a major win in the King’s Stand earlier this week. Does that mean victory is assured for Oisin Murphy? I am not so sure. It just seems too easy. What might happen is a scratch, as "heavy" conditions exist due to the copious amounts of rain that have fallen. Walker confirmed this late on Friday ...

As for Sir Michael’s entry, he is definitely a seasoned 7-yr-old, and his conditioner is hoping that the 3rd time is the charm in this race. He just missed in last year’s go, so maybe another try is in order. I am not always crazy about older sprinters, but their fast-twitch muscles know what do when asked. In other words, they must be respected. The news of Ryan Moore climbing aboard is going to be welcome to many, as he normally rides at such a high-level of competitiveness. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone a bet on this one, but I think I have another sprinter who looks capable of getting home just before the wire.

That choice falls to Glen Shiel #5(6). I am once again going to the trainer-jockey combination of Watson-Doyle, who look to have a “ringer” on their hands. The last time the connections were at Ascot, they celebrated in the winner’s enclosure after scoring in the British Champions Sprint Stakes (G1) over soft ground. The distance, course, and conditions on Saturday could play right into their hands. Though he clearly wasn’t at his best over heavy sod at The Curragh for his 2021 debut (finished 4th), needing a race seemed in order. Now, Doyle appears primed to enjoy a victory, and her riding is spectacular when it comes to handling difficult assignments. Another signature win on one of the biggest stages in all of Thoroughbred racing could be upon her. Stay tuned …

Wagering Opportunity: $2 Trifecta Box, 2/5/10

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Enjoy the final day of the Royal Meeting! Best of luck as another Ascot wraps up! Well done!