Sam Houston Race Park Picks and Analysis Friday 5 March 2021
Racing continues at Sam Houston... Their Meet has less than a month to go! Our turf man has you covered with his selections for the whole card and specific analysis for the races. If you're looking for a different track, check out all of our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below...
Most Likely Winner: (Race 10: Uncle Artie #10, 8/5):
Much to like in Austin Gustafson’s Uncle Artie #10, especially when we are talking about the son of an Artie Schiller on turf. He looks to be a gelding with all the tools to score in a spot like this one. His consistency is something to admire over this past year, and when you get Ry Eikleberry to ride on the turf it is always a plus. His fitness for the sod looks much better since he came off the bench in mid-Feb. Bet ‘em to win!
Wager: $100 Win, #10
Favorite I Am Against: (Race 6: Ultimate #3, 7/5):
Peter Blum is an influential owner/breeder whose Thoroughbred investments span the globe. Think Don Pardo… It looks like on paper that Ultimate #3 would be exactly that kind of wager—a sure one. The Speightstown colt is classy, but I don’t want to base this choice solely on that point. His price is going to head towards 4/5, and that makes me want to beat him. I have a nice alternative in Karl Broberg’s Flash of Mischief #2. This one is well-bred, obvious reasons (sire), and that was a HUGE ask to compete in the Texas Turf Mile last time during the Houston Racing Festival. When you are 63/1, that probably tells you something. The idea of plying one’s trade on turf was not a poor choice, just the class was way too long to surmount. This spot seems perfect to me, and I fully agree with Broberg’s decision (not that he called and asked…). I think the way to make some cash is to play to “Win,” especially when you have such a massive favorite, as we will most certainly have here.
Wager: $100 Win, #2
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Fred'stwirlincandy #4, 10/1; Hard Attack #5, 15/1):
We do not see many of these 1 1/8th contests on the turf at SHRP (the old distance of the Connally Turf Cup), so this is a welcome sight because it puts a nice wrinkle in this race. Money will be flowing to some of the M/L favorites, but that does not mean they cannot be beat. I would say several of them are “tepid” at best. So, looking over some of the longer prices, I like 2 of them that could be big hits! Check out Fred'stwirlincandy #4, for instance. This gelding has great experience and was running well up at Remington on their turf course. The move to FG then SHRP has not gone well, but that doesn’t mean it will not turn around. Now, ensconced in the barn of Ronnie Cravens, and with his rider Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez aboard, it might be a different story. Twirling Candy’s offspring take to the turf like a duck to water, and I like this price of 10/1. Speaking of grass bloodlines, what about a gelding by Hard Spun named Hard Attack #5? Paul Duhon is underrated as a trainer because he does not have an expansive stable, but when he employs Lane Luzzi as pilot, they can make some noise. The price on this one is going to be over 15/1, and will probably go higher, as post time arrives. Let’s find a creative way to use these 2 long shots because this will amount to a major score if they come in like I think they will.
Wager: 4/5 w 2/4/5/6/7/8/9 w 2/4/5/6/7/8/9 and/or 2/4/5/6/7/8/9 w 4/5 w 2/4/5/6/7/8/9
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 3: Dirt, 6F, AOC50k, 3F):
These 6F blasts from the Sam backstretch are some inviting opportunities. Sure, you could jut put whomever Steve Asmussen has in here 1st, or even 2nd, since he likes to sometimes have 2 entries… but where is the fun in that. Looking at this dirt sprint, I think Scott Young’s Credit Enhancement #5 looks awfully sneaky. Some will be turned off by the fact that this filly was so transient over 2020. Switching barns sometimes translates to uncertainty, but in this case, it may lead to upside. This daughter of More Than Ready will not be sporting a jockey with the emblazoned red “KS” across their chest and back for Klaravich Stables. Still, she still gets Young’s “treatment,” which means she has a great shot to score with her brand-new membership. The conditioner’s numbers look solid in this regard, as he knows how to claim. Coming from Oaklawn means that she was up against some good comp… Let’s hope she can head toward 5/1 or even 6/1… that would be an overlay for sure.
Wager: Bankroll: $100, Graduated Wager WP, #5 ($35-W, $65-P)
Enjoy an evening of racing from SHRP! Best of Luck!
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