Sam Houston Race Park Picks and Analysis Thursday 4 March 2021

Racing continues at Sam Houston... Their Meet has less than a month to go! Our turf man has you covered with his selections for the whole card and specific analysis for the races. If you're looking for a different track, check out all of our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below...

Most Likely Winner: (Race 4: Flexati #2, 9/5):

Trainer Francisco Bravo continues to send a nice group of runners onto the SHRP track for some racing… that is what some do this time of year. Flexati #2 is a gelding out of Shanghai Bobby with a chance to amend that performance 2-back. He can run with gusto, but last time he made the move into a higher class of runners, he finished 7th. It is time to give him another shot, and he should be in the proper form. Maybe his price will go up a bit, and help us once we get to the betting window.

Wager: $100 Win, #2

Favorite I Am Against: (Race 3: Henley’s Joy #5, 7/5):

There is no doubt that Bloom Racing has a plumb winner in Henley’s Joy #5. The 5-yr-old out of Kitten’s Joy knows the grass, and had an excellent year running in some major grass events. I am going to try and beat him because even though Steve Asmussen and Stewart Elliott are ruling the roost, I don’t think much of their turf ability. Instead, I want a price, and I am willing to go out on the proverbial limb. Take a look at Dreams of Valor #8 from Robertino Diodoro’s outfit… He is a hard-knocking 7-yr-old, who was running well on the SoCal sod at both Santa Anita and Del Mar. I think he just needed a race off-the-shelf. Now, Diodoro adds Ty Kennedy, and he should get a much better trip. Maybe the jock should try to get to the lead and steal this thing. The price is going to for sure be double-digits, so it is time to load up!

Wager: Bankroll: $100, Graduated Wager WPS, #8 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Whitaker #5, 6/1):

This doozy of a turf sprint has little in the way of grass experience, when it comes to the entrant’s PPs. Discerning a winner among the favorites is going to be tough, but that only offers opportunity if you look at it from a certain point of view. That is why I am keen on Whitaker #5 from the barn of Danny Pish. Even though this colt’s debut was not an impressive finish, that is not a deal-breaker here. Instead, I like to look for great works since, and I am reminded of how well the offspring of Elusive Quality handle the grass. This runner has both of those in spades, and getting Lane Luzzi to ride again might be the ticket. I know 6/1 is not a long shot per se, but I am thinking that once the tote starts to flicker, that we might end up much higher. Overlay… overlay…  

Wager: Bankroll: $100, Graduated Wager WPS, #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 6: Dirt, 6 ½F, ALLW44k, F&M 3+):

This is a tough race to handicap because the conditions span 3 and up. That translates to fillies who are lightly raced, with older mares that have more experience. The central question is do you go with an up-and-comer, or pick one that has races under her belt? Of the young fillies in this race, you really have 3 choices that are all inviting for different reasons. Karen Jacks’ Happy Sailor #5 was stellar in her first start of the year. The issue is that she really was not challenged by anyone in that contest. How would she handle a different race shape? The other 3-yr-old upstart that will take money is Bret Calhoun’s Mostly Distorted #4. She already faced some power runners during the SHRP Meet, and those efforts were not impressive. Still, she clearly has talent, and might be able to provide some “umph” on the engine. In other words, a speed dual might develop. If that happens, I could see Texas Red Bel #2 benefitting from that scenario. Her debut showed promise with a win, and now she is stepping up into higher company. A hot pace on the lead would seem to benefit her the most. There are other runners in here that could win, but to my eye, this trio look best. Amid such conflict, my consensus pick would be Mostly Distorted #4, since Calhoun consigns Ry Eikleberry once again to ride, and might end up being the best price out of the group.   

Wager: $2 Trifecta Cold, 4/2/5

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Enjoy the SHRP Thursday afternoon card! Best of Luck!