Sam Houston Race Park Picks and Analysis Wednesday 3 March 2021
Racing continues at Sam Houston... Their Meet has less than a month to go! Our turf man has you covered with his selections for the whole card and specific analysis for the races. If you're looking for a different track, check out all of our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below...
Most Likely Winner: (Race 3: Norma Jean B. #7, 9/5):
Brian Williamson has a classy MSW entry here at Sam Houston that should take money, and thus, win. Norma Jean B. #7 was solid last out, finishing 2nd at SHRP. That was off the bench, which is never easy to do. Last fall, the filly competed 2x @CD and 1x @KEE. Those efforts were not spectacular, but I think she shows promise down here on the SW Circuit and could build a nice career. I am not sure if 9/5 is the best price, but she appears to be a likely winner. Hence the sobriquet of this particular category…
Wager: $100 Win, #7
Favorite I Am Against: (Race 10: Classy Bling #11, 9/2):
I cannot say I have seen many 14-horse fields at Sam Houston in the past few years. This one is going to be a barn burner from start to finish. You talk about a finale that is bound to shoot off some fireworks; this is it folks! There is no way that I am going to trust Joe Offolter’s Classy Bling #11 in a situation like this. A blown start or traffic trouble could definitely derail any shot to even hit the board. I want to go with someone that is both stepping up, and at least has 1 race under their belt for the Meet. That nod goes to the Pollok Barn’s entry (who owns her too), Sweet Baby Shae#7. I like her price on the M/L. and I think her effort, in what was her maiden, was pretty impressive. She broke poorly but mounted a charge that was worthy of the Civil War. If she can build on that performance, I think she is worthy of a wager. This race is going to yield a major score, and could lead to a monster horizontal ticket too!
Wager: $2 Exacta Wheel, 7 w 1/2/3/4/5/6/8/9/10/11/12/13/14
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Let’s Go Alamo #6, 20/1):
Mindy Willis has what amounts to an overlay in my book in this race. She brings Let’s Go Alamo #6 into this ALLW race, and I think she is a play. Most will shake their heads and say that this colt out of My Golden Song #6 does not have the class. I will not dispute that… but, that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have grass ability or the opportunity to improve. When Sophie Doyle gets together with this trainer, she can be pretty potent. I want to be there when they go on a run. It is coming. Don’t fall into the trap of just betting Stewart Elliott and Steve Asmussen… yes, they are leading in the standings, but at this point in the Meet it is time to think outside the box! What a trite thing to say!
Wager: Bankroll: $100, Graduated Wager WPS #6 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 6: Turf, 5F, MSW38k, 3F):
There are a number of solid races on this SHRP card today, but none beckon like this one. It is an excellent wagering opportunity because of the types that are drawn in here. Nothing like some untested 3-yr-old fillies to get the blood pumping. The presumptive favorite in this contest is none other than Brad Cox’s Vincaia #9. She is shipping in from the Fair Grounds after breaking her maiden back in September. That result was not very good after rating well, and actually leading at the top of the stretch. My sense is that she is not going to be a very good price. Taking 2/1 on her with only 1 race to go on, does not seem like an inviting prospect. This will not be a surprise… I would rather back a runner like Mindy Willis’ Wyome #7. She is a filly that at least has been in competition already, albeit, these were dirt events. I like this conditioner in these positions because she understands where to pick her spots. This daughter of Commissioner will be a superb price, and I fully expect her to take to the Connally grass course. After some of those recent workouts, I believe this filly has a nice fitness level, despite not being on the track since early January. Long shot time!
Wager: Bankroll: $100, Graduated Wager WPS #7 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
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Enjoy the racing from a Wednesday ed. of SHRP! Best of Luck!