By J.N. Campbell

Sam Houston Race Park Picks & Rolling Pick 3 Analysis for January 14

By J.N. Campbell
SHRP begins its first o many late Thursday afternoon races beginning around 4pm CST. Catch a full race card, announced by the talented Chris Griffin. With a low takeout and expansive wagering menu, it is the place to be!
SHRP begins its first o many late Thursday afternoon races beginning around 4pm CST. Catch a full race card, announced by the talented Chris Griffin. With a low takeout and expansive wagering menu, it is the place to be!

Sam Houston - Late Pick 4 Insurance

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  • Sam Houston Race Park Picks

Sam Houston Race Park Picks

  • Race 1: 4-7-3-2
  • Race 2: 3-1-8-7
  • Race 3: 10-9-1-6
  • Race 4: 7-4-1-6
  • Race 5: 4-5-7-3
  • Race 6: 5-3-2-7
  • Race 7: 6-7-10-5
  • Race 8: 3-8-4-5
  • Race 9: 1-6-8-7
  • Race 10: 3-6-2-9
  • Most Likely Winner: Race 1: Commanding Candy #4 (2/1)
  • Favorite I Am Against: Race 7: A J’s Grand #7 (2/1)
  • Live Longshot Play: Race 3: Stormy Depencier #10 (10/1)

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ROLLING PICK 3…

LEG 1: (Race 4: Dirt, 1 Mile, MSW36k, 3F)

If I can find a “Single” right out of the gate, I will be pleased as punch! To begin this 12% low takeout Pick 3 wager at SHRP, we have a group of 7 fillies who will go 2 turns on the dirt. They have not been 3-yrs-old for long, and as they come past the Grandstand at “Sam” they will attempt to circumvent the track. Whoever crosses the wire first is declared the winner. Hmm, no joke…

My top choice to pull this feat off is Lane Luzzi’s mount, Calescent #7. Danny Pish has brought this runner along steadily since she broke her maiden back in Sept at Remington Park. All 3 of her subsequent efforts were just like the first—consistently hitting the board. That bodes well as she comes down to Houston to race. She has the fitness to stretch out to the mile, and maybe the extra distance will do her good.

This 1st Leg of the sequence is a “Single” for me, and it is simultaneously comforting/scary to start this way, but here we go…  

Selections: 7 (Single)

 

LEG 2: (Race 5: Turf, 1 Mile, AOC50k, 3)

I love a good turf race, and there is nothing better than seeing one at SHRP. They do an amazing job keeping the course in great shape this time of year. Most of the weather in Houston is hot and steamy, but come January through the end of the Meet in March, the temps are moderate. That equals excellent conditions.

This 2nd Leg of our sequence is another short route, but the real difficulty here is to find any of these runners that have even a modicum of grass experience. Most are dirt burners that could use a good stroll on the lawn. Some handicappers may tab Lizard King #7 as their favorite because Ron Moquett inherited this colt from Chad Brown. Last out at Monmouth, he was successful just by a neck in a MSW45k event at this same distance. That is not necessarily a reason to bet him because his jockey Reylu Gutierrez is extremely weak when it comes to “settling” experience on this surface.

I want to seek value elsewhere, and try to find some “hidden” turf experience. It will not be an easy hunt. However, if I had to follow a clue, it would be the one I found with Karl Broberg’s Flash of Mischief #5. These Into Mischief offspring can adapt to any surface, and getting Ry Eikleberry in the saddle suits. His grass abilities continue to improve. Last out on the dirt in the Springboard Mile 200k, everyone ended up looking at the taillights of a horse named Buscador. Trainer Broberg had a win on the turf opening weekend at SHRP, and can do it again here.

One other runner that is worth including, is Steve Asmussen’s son of Hard Spun named Generator #4. This colt has a late turn-of-foot that looks inviting, and he might end up more than a square price with Stewart Elliott aboard. He could very easily find his grass legs quickly, and win this race outright. Do not be surprised if he ends up in the winner’s circle. Going with these 3 should suit our needs. This is going to be a hard-fought race! It is on the grass, aren’t they always?  

Selections: 4/5/7 (3 Deep)

 

LEG 3: (Race 6: Dirt, 1 Mile, ALLW38k, 4+)

The conclusion to this sequence includes a salty 7, peppered with some ringers that might excite. Rob Diodoro brings his fastballer, Vice Versa #7, who he acquired off the waiver wire from Steve Asmussen a race back, into this spot. That 7F sprint at Delta Downs resulted in a nice win with Ry Eikelberry aboard. My one major issue with this runner is that he has not been in an ALLW race since running at Oaklawn, then Lone Star. Maybe Diodoro has him primed to make the jump back up into this class division, but I am not overly confident.

Instead, looking for value that is not 7/5 on the tote, what about an entry like New Mexico #5 from the barn of Steve Asmussen? It would make sense to go big with Winchell’s Rotation #3, but I prefer “NM” because he looks to be pointed in the right direction. Stewart Elliott rode him up I-35 in OKC @RP, and that was a nice performance. These Malibu Moon runners just continue to plow ahead.

My sense is that we need to go with the 2 Asmussen runners, and spurn the 2 Diodoro stablemates (he also has Dreams of Valor #2). That may end up backfiring, but I am willing to take the risk to keep this ticket affordable.

Selections: 3/5 (2 Deep)

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$1.00 Rolling P3 TICKET COST: $6

Enjoy some late afternoon and evening racing from Sam Houston Race Park! Best of Luck!

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Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +