Racing continues at Sam Houston... Their Meet has less than a month to go! Our turf man has you covered with his selections for the whole card and specific analysis for the races. If you're looking for a different track, check out all of our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below...
Trainer Mike Stidham might be sending Mystic Guide to the other side of the world to run in the Dubai WC, but he still is laser-focused on what is going on back home. His expansive stable is churning them out right now, and though I do not normally like a first-time starter to break his maiden right off the go, this one, Conga Boy #3, flashes "bet me." His works over the SHRP track have included a total of 7 since mid-Jan., and that tells me that Stidham has taken his time to bring this one along. Looking for the proper entry point is very important, and this MC25k event looks like a nice one.
Wager: $100 Win, #3
Favorite I Am Against: (Race 6: Prospector Fever #6, 3/1):
Sarah Davidson is a respectable trainer with a stable which though small, puts out a nice crop of runners. There is no question as to whether or not her entry in this race, Prospector Fever #2, will vie for favoritism or not… the 7-yr-old gelding’s last race exhibited a nice rally down the lane. Still, I am not as strong a believer in his ability to replicate that performance. I find this race tougher as far as the ones who are drawn in here. Also, Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez does not appear that trustworthy on the grass. Instead, I would like some value, or at least double the odds Davidson’s is likely to be. In that vein, why not hone in on Karl Broberg’s Astounding #6? Some will miss that the accomplished trainer is rolling this one back after just running last week at SHRP. I like that signal of confidence, and getting hot lawn jockey, Ry Eikleberry. He has dominated the grass events of late, and I like his aggressive style. The cutback in distance for this son of Tapit gets my turf radar bleeping.
Wager: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 2/6 w 2/6 w rest of the field
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Perfect Springer #3, 20/1):
Perfect Springer #3 is another member of Mindy Willis’ barn heading to the John B. Connally Turf Course at a big price. Everyone needs to understand that this conditioner can train some grass runners, and I am betting that this one will get overlooked. Sure, this gelding did not do much just last month in his first race, but that happens all-too-often in this business. Giving him another chance seems in order, especially since Sophie Doyle and Willis make a ton of sense together. They make a great team on the turf. The boxcar price is even more of a reason to sit up and take notice. Frankly, I do not trust many of these other so-called “favorites,” which are drawn in here. This should be a perfect time for a major upset selection.
Wager: Bankroll: $100, Graduated Wager, WPS #
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 5: Dirt, 6F, MSW43k, 3F):
A bunch of fairly untested fillies are going to be turning and burning along the dirt in this sprint. Several in here may not know that a race is actually happening, so choosing one of those will bring you excellent odds. However, the drawback is that when they are that untested, it is very hard to make a case, and thus, wager money. For that last reason, I am focused on a Bret Calhoun runner named Propsera #5. She is out of one of my favorite sires, Twirling Candy, and as luck would have it, already has 2 tries on the Sam MT. She almost scored her maiden on that first start, barely losing by a whisker. The next go at 7F nearly a month later saw her fail as the favorite in a similar contest. Now, after a couple of works, she is coming into this spot fit as a fiddle. Maybe Lindey Wade, who was aboard for all her runs, can guide her to victory. This looks to be a good spot. The old adage, “clean faces, win races,” might suit!