Saratoga Sunday Picks & Betting Analysis for August 15
The New York Racing Association host another wonderful day at Saratoga ... Sunday racing is once again on the docket, and on this 10-race card we are sure to find some major value. Check out what our turf-man thinks about it all! Here come some long shots!
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Sunday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Race 4: Dirt, 6F, ALLW90k, 3+ NY Breds
The New York breds are out in force in this race, and that is going to make for a challenging handicapping situation. It looks like Dave Donk has the inside track with his accomplished runner, Water’s Edge #1. At ½ on the M/L, that is not a terribly good value, so looking elsewhere is essential. This son of Candy Ride (ARG) was excellent in breaking his maiden last time, with a speed fig that was awfully strong. Winning by 3+ lengths clearly raised some eyebrows. That doesn’t mean that it is a foregone conclusion they will win in this class ramp up.
Instead, I am willing to back a runner like John Kimmel’s Quickflash #5. The gelding has some ability, and he missed last time out at Saratoga; he does have the fitness level to bounce back nicely. Though the son of Flashback only has 1 win in 13 career attempts, the presence of Irad Ortiz can make a difference. Shortening up might assist too. Kimmel is a trainer with deep NYRA experience, and he is looking for his 2nd win of the Meet. For bettors, the price will be right on this one for sure …
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Cold, 5 w 1
Race 6: Turf, 5½F, MC40k, F&M3+ NY Breds
The NY breds move from sprinting on the dirt to the grass … this just gets tougher and tougher. For my money, I want to back Tom Bush’s New York Supreme #7. She is a versatile filly out of Constitution who came to Bush last year. She already had a turn over the grass course at The SPA, and it resulted in a 3rd place finish. I am more interested in the 1st half of that race than the 2nd because she flashed some solid early speed. Getting out early can be crucial in races like these. Personally, I thought she needed a race, so returning to the scene of the crime is logical. It could result in something special for this one. Junior Alvarado takes over, and that might assist with a different result. Let’s use her, and also Donk’s Candy Money #6 and Maker’s Black Licorice #3, since they have solid jocks aboard in Castellano and Gaffalione … plus their prices will make this Trifecta a great score.
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 3/6/7
Race 7: Turf, 1 1/8th, AOC80k, 3
The Inner Turf is the place to be for this slugfest that is going to be contested at 1 1/8th. With no “deserving” favorite drawn in here, it will be very interesting to see who corners that top spot on the tote. There is nothing like a good board watching event because it really can inform you on where the money is going. The way Mike Maker has been going lately during the Meet, anytime he enters a race, his runners have to be considered threats. Shady McGee #12, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, tried some higher-class turf races at Canterbury and at Saratoga, and he had some mixed results. His conditioner was hoping he could make the transition from Clm30k events to a “Non-G” … it did not take. Still, experience is experience … as they say, so maybe Gaffs can put that to use on this return trip to the lawn here at Saratoga. I trust these connections to get the job done, and they should have a great shot breaking from the outside.
Wagering Recommendation: $25/$50 WP #12
Race 9: Turf, 5½F, Galway S. $120k, 3F
The “Feature” this Sunday is a sprint on the turf, and trainers Wesley Ward with Illegal Smile #6, and Brad Cox with Goin’ Good #7 are smart-looking. Logic tells us that they should break well, and rate nicely. I am spurning both of them because their prices are just too low. Either could win, and I would never try to talk you off of them. Still, we are bargain hunting, and that makes me want to choose Dr B #4 from the Reid Barn. He is one of those who has never taken to the green, but that doesn’t bother me because of her breeding out Liam’s Map. Her dam is not too shabby either—Boleyn. Last out in an off-track 75k event at Monmouth, she finished 2nd against a short field. I like her talent, and the addition of Luis Saez, who is as hot as ever. I think she has major upside. Sometimes you can uncover a nicely priced winner by digging deeper, and looking for opportunities.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager, WPS #4 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
----------------------------------------------
Enjoy some action from the SPA! The tradition at Saratoga Race Course marches on …