Horse-by-Horse Analysis of Saturday's Southwest Stakes (G3) @OP
Horse-by-Horse Analysis of the Southwest Stakes (G3) @OP
1 1/16th (Dirt), Southwest Stakes (G3), Purse $750k, 3
Along the Road to the Kentucky Derby, it must… must… stretch through Hot Springs and its Oaklawn Park. This Saturday, on the line are Derby Points; 10-4-2-1, to be precise. In the past, the Grade III Southwest Stakes has formed the 2nd Leg of a funnel that leads to Churchill Downs (The Rebel (G2) and the Arkansas Derby (G1) follow). Winners have not fared well when it comes to punching their ticket, but perhaps this year will be different? After 2 weather delays, it is finally time to run. Should be a great contest.
Now, let’s find out about this field…
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#1 Essential Quality (Jky: Luis Saez/Trn: B. Cox):
Here is the Derby ace. Brad Cox finally gets to send this Godolphin homebred to the track. No more snow, ice, or excuses. For lack of a better phrase, it is put up or shut up time. The Tapit colt wowed the miniscule crowd at the Breeders’ Cup in the Juvenile and has not been seen since. Was that a good move by his conditioner to wait until what has become late February to start his 3-yr-old campaign? Time will tell… If he is anything like he was last fall, then he should win this race, but there are some competitors in here that will be standing in his way. I like the fact that Luis Saez is in town to ride him again. The days of Derby entrants running more than 2 spring races appears to be over. On to the Arkansas Derby after this one.
Grade: A
#2 Saffa’s Day (Jky: R. Santana/Trn: S. Asmussen):
Steve Asmussen is going to pull a Steve Asmussen, and bring 2 entrants into this high-profile contest. The first is this colt by Carpe Diem that was excellent last time in a MSW82k race. You have to understand that these kinds of contests at Oaklawn are some of the best in the country. That was an 11-horse field, and Asmussen’s router, serving as favorite, drove to the lead down the lane. There is no doubt that he is talented, but looking back at the Springboard Mile at Remington Park when he had the opportunity to respond, he didn’t. How will he handle a class bump like this one, remains to be seen. It may just be too much to accomplish, even if Ricardo Santana is back aboard.
Grade: C+
#3 Last Samurai (Jky: J. Court/Trn: D. Stewart):
Bred well, and fully capable of running a big race, this son of Malibu Moon for trainer Dallas Stewart has waited patiently for the right opportunity to make his 3-yr-old debut. After 3 starts at Churchill Downs last fall, he went to the pasture and hung out. Speaking of those bloodlines, everyone knows that Stonestreet does things properly. What I am not so sure about is how sharp this Samurai can be. I know Stewart is accomplished, but this is going to be a challenge for the team which includes jockey Jon Court. What is assured is that this entrant will be a magnificent price come post time.
Grade: B-
#4 Jackie’s Warrior (Jky: J. Rosario/Trn: S. Asmussen):
If there is a major roadblock to Essential Quality’s #1 (EQ) rise to Derby favorite, then it's this colt by Maclean’s Music. If that is not a sire you recall seeing on the racetrack during his own career then it could be because he only ran once, at Santa Anita. But his offspring… oh, those offspring, have made an impression. Last fall, this Asmussen charge was great, as he was the 1st horse in some time to sweep the NYRA 2-yr-old preps. The expectations heading into the BC Juvenile were longer than the Lier Jet line across Versailles Road at Bluegrass Airport during the Keeneland Sales. He failed to get to the lead, which he needed, and finished 4th to EQ #1. Now, after a respite, he is back, and a rematch that has been postponed for a couple of weeks, is on! Joel Rosario, Asmussen’s signature rider for this horse, comes to town after hanging out in Riyadh last weekend. Can he make the difference? We shall see…
Grade: B+
#5 Santa Cruiser (Jky: R. Eramia/Trn: K. Desormeaux):
Trainer Keith Desormeaux has sent this son of Dialed In to the Lecomte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2). Those efforts did not yield wins, nor did they even constitute hitting the board. Still, this entrant created some buzz, and got the pundits talking. That was solely based on a win that he garnered back in November at Churchill Downs. I have no idea if this recent class infusion by competing at the Fair Grounds is useful, but it cannot hurt. The problem is that with the other favorites that are drawn in here, it is hard to make a case for this member of Desormeaux outfit. More development is needed, but I have a feeling that we will see this one at some point down the road.
Grade: C
#6 Woodhouse (Jky: D. Cabrera/Trn: C. Trout):
The Trout Barn is hoping that a Speightstown colt can pull off the upset at Oaklawn, as he enters his 3rd lifetime race. That is not going to be easy, and in fact he might end up being the longest shot on the board. David Cabrera is a jockey who now spends his time in Hot Springs after an extensive career riding previously at Sam Houston Race Park. His efforts have not been terrible this Meet, and that is impressive considering the company he is keeping. The only pilot that this runner has ever seen has been Cabrera. The one plus that this Trout runner has going for him is that he ran over a muddy OP track back on 11 Feb. When you have that kind of recency, it can assist if things go to pieces for the lower priced favorites. Probably, in the end, too big a mountain to climb.
Grade: C-
#7 Spielberg (Jky: M. Garcia/Trn: B. Baffert):
Some were surprised to see Bob Baffert’s entry come to Oaklawn, but I was not one of them. This is a classic move by the HOF trainer, and one that I wrote about a week ago when I was discussing his ability to engage game theory. By spreading his runners across a broader spectrum this time of year, he can parry risk, and simultaneously give them a chance to score. I liked this son of Union Rags all the way back at Del Mar, last summer. I think most would say he is wildly inconsistent, and when he had the chance to face Medina Spirit, one of Baffert’s aces, he missed. His experience last fall is unquestionable, and I still believe he can make an impact along the Derby Trail. The chances though are dwindling, and against Cox and Asmussen’s juggernauts, he is going to have to be at his best. That may not happen, but I am pleased to see Martin Garcia reunite with his old partner Baffert. Before their dust-up a few years ago, they formed a solid team.
Grade: B
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Join us Saturday for all of our Oaklawn picks as our lead handicapper offers his selections! Should be a great set of races from the thawed-out racetrack in beautiful Hot Springs!