Tampa Bay Downs Picks & Betting Analysis for December 10: Turf Edition

One of the best kept turf courses in all of Thoroughbred racing is Tampa Bay Downs ... Today, we will be spotlighting the track and all its green glory! It's the Tampa Turf Edition!

At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! 

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Friday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner: (Race 9: Independence Law #1, 5/2):

It is time to kick off this Turf Edition with a pick that is sure to cash. I am happy to see this one come back to the grass for the Cruz Barn. The 4-yr-old filly looks entirely capable, especially since this is her 2nd start off-the-bench. With the scrappy Rocco Bowen in the saddle, it will be interesting to see how she does leaving that chute going 1 1/16th on the turf course. I think she would benefit by rating closer to the lead. If her odds tick up towards 3/1, then she is a bet for sure!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #1

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 6: Sparkling Plenty #5, 6/1):

Looking for some turf value in this MC event, I am pretty keen on Karyn Philipp’s filly by Jess’s Dream. This is a perfect play because you know that even with Samy Camacho in the saddle, the Florida bred will be double-digits come post time. She has failed to hit-the-board in all 7 of her races, but I think it is high time she turns in something special. Last out on the grass and at this same condition, she finished 4th, which was respectable. I like an angle like this one where a horse improves greatly, and then comes back into a similar spot. You are going to get great value, and there is much to like from this barn.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 1 Mile, OC75k, 2):

Looking to the “spotlight,” it is going to be a fun one because we have a group of young colts who are all about to have a major birthday. The division across America is just getting going as the calendar is about to turn, and that means that we could be looking at a prize turfer for 2022. I am thinking that out of these 10, trainer Arnaud Delacour probably gets the nod when it comes to having the entry that will be at the top of the tote. Stride #6 is not only well-named for a grass horse, but the son of Candy Ride (ARG) was awfully good in the Laurel Futurity back in October (2nd). After a nice rest, he gets back to it, and Pablo Morales takes over for the Peter Blum homebred. Delacour seems confident because he is taking off the hood. I am not sure if I really agree with the 2/1 M/L price, and for that reason I am going to look elsewhere.

My “key” horse is Graham Motion’s High Stock #3. Here is an incredibly well-bred colt by Noble Mission (GB). We all know what those can do on the grass, and I like the choice of Hector Diaz. His Meet is already looking quite promising. Motion is an expert conditioner, and I am convinced that the Laurel Futurity can be chalked up to just “not his day.” Maybe this one is a loose on the lead-type, which means he just needs to break sharply. Using the “draw a line through that last one,” is not a comment I make too often, but its usage seems appropriate considering the poor performance. As for a pair of others that can round out my ticket, I particularly like John Shaw’s The Green Crusader #2 (who is in for a tag) and Eoin Harty’s Optigogo #5. Both of these make sense for different reasons, but they both really boil down to class. Running at Gulfstream and at Woodbine are to be respected. That should get it done!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta Wheel, 3 w 2/5/6 w 2/5/6 w 2/5/6

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Tampa Bay Downs is back for another week of racing … enjoy some of the best turf that Florida has to offer!