Tampa Bay Downs Picks: Catsoutofthebag the pick in Race 5

As the meet begins to wind down at Tampa Bay Downs the racing is holding steady with another solid nine-race card on tap on Wednesday. Our in-house handicapper has provided picks for the entire program, with additional analysis of his strongest opinions throughout the day.

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Wednesday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner:  Pure Fashion (Race 3) - Listed at a stunningly high 8-1 on the morning line, Pure Fashion is the day’s ‘Most Likely Winner’ at Tampa. If I had any confidence she was going to be around the price she’d instead be the ‘Best Value,’ but it’s likely she comes down in price significantly against this ragtag crew. Pure Fashion hasn’t shown much in two career starts, however her last start, which was her first on turf, came against a vastly better group and she at least flashed a bit of early speed. The class relief she gets here is monumental, and this well-bred filly needn’t improve at all to be a very likely winner.

Best Value:  Catsoutofthebag (Race 5) - Admittedly, I was a little skeptical of this mare at first since she’s always seemed to be better sprinting, but her last race was a legitimately good effort. She had plenty of trouble in that tougher spot, getting checked and shuffled leaving the far turn and then running into traffic again in the final sixteenth, and with a cleaner trip she may have won. There are a couple others that have some appeal in this solid starter allowance affair, but if she runs back to her last race she’s going to have a big chance at a square price.

Other Races of Interest:  Race 8 - A 16k maiden claimer for fillies and mares on dirt isn’t where I’d typically expect to find a play, but I am intrigued by Pink Shoelaces (#11) in this race. This filly was well beaten in her debut on the main track by The Grass Is Blue, however she set a fast pace in that spot and the winner has since developed into a stakes type for trainer Chad Brown. Her comeback this year wasn’t anything special, but I think Pink Shoelaces is going to appreciate switching back to dirt, and she won’t have to move forward much to compete with this dreadful bunch.

Race 9 - There’s a few different ways to go in the finale, but I think He’s Royalty (#8) is the one that will offer the most value. This guy’s recent form looks rather mediocre, but if you isolate his lone turf sprint, which came on January 17 at Tampa against a good group of maiden special weights, it’s clear he’s a major player here. While others have big question marks surrounding them, He’s Royalty has actually maintained his form rather well considering this is likely his preferred trip, and because of low-profile connections a fair price is all but assured.

*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*