Tampa Bay Picks: Sam F. Davis Day LP5 Ticket for February 12

The Sam F. Davis Stakes takes center stage, offering KYD148 Points, but we also have a Late Pick 5 ticket for you ... check out these selections below!
The Sam F. Davis Stakes takes center stage, offering KYD148 Points, but we also have a Late Pick 5 ticket for you ... check out these selections below!

Tampa Bay Downs Picks - Saturday, February 12, 2022

  • Race 1: 4-1-7-9
  • Race 2: 8-1-7-5
  • Race 3: 1-8-3-7
  • Race 4: 1-9-11-6
  • Race 5: 11-5-12-3
  • Race 6: 3-8-5-6
  • Race 7: 3-5-2-6
  • Race 8: 2-7-3-5 (Leg A: Cross Country Wager)
  • Race 9: 10-2-8-4
  • Race 10: 4-7-5-6 (Leg D: Cross Country Wager)
  • Race 11: 6-12-9-5
  • **Most Likely Winner: Nest #2 (Race 8)**
  • **Best Value: Golden Glider #4 (Race 10)**

Tampa Bay Downs returns for another weekend! February arrives ... and there are stakes races aplenty, as we head towards the Tampa Bay Derby! A pair of races that directly affect trips to Churchill ... the KYD and the Oaks ... are on the docket, and we have you covered with a Late Pick 5 ticket.

This Saturday we have before us another Cross Country bet. If you are not familiar, this combines 2-3 racetracks (and their key races) in one Pick 5 wager. This Saturday we have ... Leg A: Tampa-Race 8 (3:49 pm EST), Leg B: Aqueduct-Race 8 (4:30 pm EST), Leg C: Oaklawn-Race 8 (4:47 pm EST), Leg D: Tampa-Race 10 (4:54 pm EST), Leg E: Oaklawn-Race 10 (5:56 pm EST). For a 50 cent minimum, that is quite a deal!

At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below. Do not forget to follow us on Twitter ... @Horseracing_USA ...

Horse Racing Picks



LEG 1: (Race 7: Dirt, 6F, Pelican S., $100k, 4+)

Tampa Bay Downs gets its Late Pick 5 going with this dirt sprint … 6F on the MT. We want to be cautious to not go too deep in this opening leg, but we also do not want to be knocked out. What a tight rope! When it comes to a top pick, I am pretty impressed by the running ability of Bill Mott’s Baby Yoda #3. This gelding is no child, and the 4-yr-old should be ready to communicate through The Force. HOF trainer Bill Mott has brought this runner along nicely, and he did everything he could last time out in the Malibu (G1) against Flightline at Santa Anita Park. Shipping to Florida, you have to think that his class will win out, and make him a “Single.” The expert riding ability of Jose Ortiz matches his mount, and I would not be surprised one bit if he sweeps up this “Non-G.” Just in case he doesn’t, I am pretty interested in the Dobles Barn, and their entry, Pudding #5. This experienced gelding by Two Step Salsa has exhibited some excellent work down at Gulfstream Park against some tough company. Coming up to Tampa is not going to be easy … but this one has some “non-G” efforts in his saddle bags. Young Leo Reyes is an up-and-coming rider with potential … he gets the call. For me, going 2-Deep makes a ton of sense.

Selections: 3/5 (2-Deep)


LEG 2: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 Mile and 40yds, Suncoast S., $150k, 3F)

The filly version of the Sam Davis is upon us, and once again, the Suncoast S. serves as a gateway to KYOaks Points. As usual, 10-4-2-1 are up for grabs, and in this year’s edition, we have a heavy, heavy favorite in Todd Pletcher’s Nest #2. It will be difficult to make a case against this daughter of Curlin because she seemingly has everything going her way. The class, form, jockey, connections, all seem to be aligned, and even the cutback in distance does not appear to be much of an issue. Her only weakness could be the time off, since she has not been seen since running in the Demoiselle (G2) back at Aqueduct in early December. She won by a neck that blustery afternoon, and now is attempting to start her ’22 push to that special Friday on Derby Eve. I am not up for going against her because I honestly do not think that anyone can match her talent. Irad Ortiz is aboard … we know his ability … A “Single” for me …

Selections: 2 (Single)


LEG 3: (Race 9: Turf, 1 1/16th, ALLW30k, F&M 4+)

Moving over to the Tampa Turf Course, we hope this one stays on the grass … those folks in the Racing Office pulled a fast one on bettors last week, and it wrecked the highly-touted LP5 on Sunday. A new week is here, and of course, a grass event means that it is going to be heavily contested. This is my favorite location to bet on this time of year because the pools are full, and the finishes are fierce. Looking at this race (and the rest of the sequence), I have some strong opinions in the “feature,” so we are free to be a bit more liberal with our choices in here. My top selection in this ALLW Co. route is actually not Chad Brown’s entry, Editor At Large #8. I know that might seem like I am playing with fire (Peter Brant-owner, Irad Ortiz-jockey), but even though this filly is by Lope De Vega (IRE), I think she does not have the late kick I am looking for. Let’s use her on this ticket, but I also like Roy Lerman’s Joyous Times #2. There are several reasons why I think this 5-yr-old mare is the one to watch. In 2021, she had a splendid time of it on several lawns like Tampa, Belmont, and Saratoga. None of those races were wins, but that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have ability to win here. Lerman found a spot for her to come off-the-bench at Tampa on 12 Jan. Just because she ended up 4th is not necessarily a knock. Needing a race, as they say … that could be the issue. The addition of expert turf rider, Javier Castellano, I think is going to be a boon. Don’t forget, this mare has both Kitten’s Joy and English Channel in her background. That is pretty impressive. Others that deserve a gander … Tony Wilson’s Independence Law #4 could be a player, with Paco Lopez in the irons. She won last out at Tampa on the grass in an ALLW25k. Maybe a repeat is in the cards? Last but not least, my top pick is one I think you should consider. How about the talent of Kelsey Danner’s Gladys #10? This 4-yr-old by Medaglia d’Oro is well-bred, and she could be sitting on a big race. Running against a tough class of horses down at Gulfstream Park, she ships up to take on this crowd. If you look at her conditioner’s record in S. Florida, it is pretty solid. Daniel Centeno gets this assignment, since Tyler Gaffalione is not present, and he is a worthy sub for this class dropper. What a race … let’s tab all 4 of these … moving right along!

Selections: 2/4/8/10 (4-Deep), Note: if SCR occur, add Applecross #14 …


LEG 4: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Sam F. Davis S. (G3), $250k, 3)

The focal point of Saturday racing at Tampa is this KYD148 contest—Sam F. Davis Stakes. A G3 event, it regularly brings together a well-matched field of runners; this year is no exception. There are a number of ways you can go in a spot like this one, but I am going to wager that most bettors will be backing Brian Lynch’s Classic Causeway #3. This colt by Giant’s C. is quite a runner, but he has not been seen since last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Lynch’s entry ran 2nd in that contest to Kenny McPeek’s Smile Happy, and that probably sways many to head for the windows in this regard. Even with Irad Ortiz in the irons, I am not on board. I realize that if this colt is sharp, he could win, but instead, I like a number of other runners who possess prowess. My top selection is Mark Casse’s Golden Glider #4. The colt by Ghostzapper came to Tampa from Woodbine, and really impressed late in the game over the MT. That was an OC75k, and with Antonio Gallardo aboard, he has the chance to improve further. I realize a Pletcher favorite scratched, and most of the field he faced was not as classy as it could be. Still, I like his chances, and the price will be exceptional. Using him, along with Casse’s other pair, God of Love #5 and Volcanic #10; plus, Vicky Oliver’s Trademark #6, Saffie Joseph’s Make It Big #7, and Matt Williams’ Strike Hard #11, all can help round out this ticket for various reasons. In particular, I like the running ability of Joseph’s son of Neolithic. With Jose Ortiz in the saddle once again … this Red Oak Stable member could be very tough to beat. His Springboard Mile $400k win was a coming-out-party. This could be even more so …

Selections: 4/5/6/7/10/11 (6-Deep)


LEG 5: (Race 11: Turf, 1 1/16th, Clm16k, 4+)

The finale of this challenging Late Pick 5 card is … drumroll please … a Claiming contest on the turf. Of course … I do not have a ton of slots left, since I am being judicious with my selections. The positive is that I have a couple of turfers here that look like they can handle the green. I am interested in backing Derek Ryan’s Thomond Park #6 because he is finally getting some class relief. Dropping down from running in ALLW Co., and most recently in a Handicap, I think will be welcome. His Tampa tries have not gone well so far, and it is time for a change. By Giant’s Causeway, this 6-yr-old gelding is capable, and the best news is that expert Gulfstream rider, Edwin Gonzalez comes to town. His numbers are impressive, and this is an upgrade as far as I am concerned. As for another pick, let’s use the pair up once again with Saffie Joseph and Daniel Centeno. Their 6-yr-old horse, Dream Liner (BRZ) #12, has Tampa and Gulfstream recency, and I like the turf ability of this one. Missing as the favorite in a grass race is not a negative (he did this last out), since there are so many factors that can lead to success or failure. What a strong pair of picks to end this analysis … Let’s get some winners!

Selections: 6/12 (2-Deep)


Ticket: 3-5 / 2 / 2-4-8-10 / 4-5-6-7-10-11 / 6-12

.50 LP5 TICKET COST: $48.00

Enjoy some action from Florida at Tampa Bay Downs! The tradition of the Sam F. Davis Stakes continues … Be sure to follow us on Twitter … Horseracing_USA !!!