Turfway Park Picks & Analysis for March 4
Turfway Park will host another eight-race card on Thursday evening, led by an intriguing allowance race. Our in-house handicapper has made picks for the whole card and has provided select analysis for a few of the races.
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Thursday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Most Likely Winner: Jerry’s Secret (Race 5) - There are some other intriguing runners in this field, but if Jerry’s Secret runs back to the lofty 79 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in his debut he should win this race. While that number may seem a bit high for a Susan Anderson firster, it certainly looks legitimate given the fact the winner was a well-meant Wesley Ward runner and the top two distanced a decent older horse in Sag Harbor. At this point I see no reason to believe Jerry’s Secret’s debut effort is phony, and therefore he’s a very likely winner of this race even if someone else jumps up with an improved performance.
Best Value: Volubile (Race 6) - The morning line hasn’t been great at the Turfway Park meet, so the 15-1 odds on Volubile should probably be taken with a grain of salt, however I can’t help but get excited at the prospect of double-digit odds on this guy. He’s getting a massive upgrade in trainer to Tom Drury, and his last start over this track was already a serious step in the right direction. Having run well in his latest outing at six furlongs, a distance well short of his best, I’m expecting serious improvement from him in this spot as he stretches out in distance.
Other Races of Interest: Race 3 - There’s nobody in this maiden race that scares me, which is why I’m willing to take a shot with Lavender Earl (#10) as he goes first off-the-claim for Bill Morey. Lavender Earl has run reasonably well in his first two starts in sprint races, and the switch to Morey is a significant one. While I’m not convinced that he’s truly a two-turn horse, I’m hoping that Morey, who is having a really good meet, can move him up. If he does this horse is going to be a major player at a square price.
Race 7 - One thing I know for certain in the day’s feature is that I want no part of Pop a Choc (#8). This filly ran some really good sprints on the NYRA circuit last year, however her form has tailed off sharply as of late and the switch to Turfway feels like a desperate move for a filly who’s clearly been at her best on dirt. Instead, I like Miss Mosaic (#10) in this spot. Five and a half furlongs could be a little short for her, but she ran well over this track last year and had significant trouble last out in the G3 Seaway at Woodbine. If she handles this trip she’s a very likely winner.
*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*