Turfway Park Picks & Analysis for March 5

Turfway Park is back in action on Friday with another eight-race card. Our in-house handicapper has made picks for the entire program and provided select analysis of a few of the races.

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Friday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner:  On Cue (Race 5) - It’s tough to know what to expect from the first-time starters in this race, but it would take a seriously good one to defeat On Cue if she runs back to her debut effort. This filly lagged off a fairly modest pace and closed well to make up some ground behind a pair of next-out winners, including the runner-up Wait for Nairobi, who came back to win the Cincinnati Trophy over this track. All On Cue needs to do his duplicate that performance to win, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her take a step forward in her second career start.

Best Value:  Hollywood Hoopla (Race 3) - There are a few suspect horses that are going to be short prices in this race, including my top pick’s stablemate Rising Seas, who was brutal at Turfway last year and is going to take money based solely on her dirt form. I much prefer Hollywood Hoopla, who is the exact opposite. Her dirt races are dismal, but she’s shown a good deal of ability on both turf and synth. No one in this race scares me, so I’m perfectly content to take a shot with a filly who flashed potential as a 3-year-old and is making her first local start at 4.

Other Races of Interest:  Race 1 - Kichiro (#5) may fly under the radar a bit in this race due to being trained by Jeffrey Englehart, but don’t let that fool you: this horse is a synth specialist that merits serious consideration here. It’s true that Englehart doesn’t run many horses at Turfway, but he’s a shrewd horseman that’s probably recognized this horse is at his best over a synthetic surface. If his out-of-town form translates, he’s going to be tough to beat in the opener.

Race 7 - Kaely’s Sister (#7) is probably a deserving favorite as she adds Lasix in her second start for world-class trainer Brad Cox, but how short a price do you want to accept on a filly that earned a 54 Beyer Speed Figure for her debut win? She’s going to need to improve to beat this field, which is why I’m going with Threatlevelmidnite (#9) as a value-based alternative. Threatlevelmidnite ran well in her first start off the claim by Ethan West, and although that race came against nominally lesser company, I don’t think this is such a big step up in class for her. If she maintains her current form she’s going to be a major player, possibly at double-digit odds.

*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*