Authentic opens as a 6/5 favorite for the Preakness
9th September 2020
An Authentic v Tiz the Law rematch looks unlikely in the Preakness
In the aftermath of his surprise win at the 146th Kentucky Derby over the weekend, it is no surprise that Bob Baffert’s Authentic has opened on the international markets as the favorite for Preakness 145 next month, What is surprising however is that he’s opened up at such a short price. 6/5 is the best number around and that is way too short for him.
Tiz the Law is unlikely to run in the Preakness as saving him for the Breeders’ Cup Classic seems like a much better plan of action. Having tasted defeat for only the second time (with both occasions coming at Churchill Downs), sitting him out of the race at Pimlico with no Triple Crown on the line seems like the sensible position. Trainer Barclay Tagg has been noncommittal on his future plans saying that he’ll take a wait and see approach. Yet if he does run, the early 5/2 on offer screams value.
Going into the Derby, I liked Art Collector to give Tiz the Law all he could handle but he was scratched. He should be good to go for the Preakness and give me some of that 9/2. This is a horse who has gotten better and better throughout the three-year-old season and I feel confident he has a big run in him. He’s where I’d probably go at this juncture.
Honor A.P. had a poor start at the Derby and was blocked in for large stretches of the race but still rallied to finish fourth. 6/1 is his early price and there is no doubt in my mind that he’ll attract action at that number.
Bob Baffert has confirmed that Thousand Words will be pointed to Pimlico following his late scratch due to rearing and flipping whilst being saddled in the paddock. According to his trainer, he doesn’t have a scratch on him and will stay in Kentucky along with Tiz the Law instead of going back to the west coast. The winners of the Shared Belief Stakes is listed as a 10/1 shot to win the Preakness.
Happy Saver is the first horse who wasn’t around the Derby scene listed as the 12/1 sixth favorite. He beat Monday Morning Qb in the Federico Tesio at Laurel Park to make it three wins from three. A Todd Pletcher horse who has come on leaps and bounds in recent weeks is certainly one to keep an eye on. His turn of speed is very impressive and if you are looking to find value away from the more established three-year-olds then this could well be your horse.
These are your top six for now as we'll continue to monitor the markets ahead of Preakness 145 in October.