By Sean Morris

Vequist an 8-1 value play in the Juvenile Fillies

By Sean Morris
Joel Rosario rides our pick in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Joel Rosario rides our pick in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

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The $2,000,000 Grade I Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies is Race 8 on the card at Keeneland on Friday. Below is our Race Card with all the Morning Line odds and links to our betting partners BetAmerica, TVG and TwinSpires where you can join today and take advantage of their excellent sign-up offers for new customers.

Underneath you'll find our race preview written by our in-house handicapper and originally published here on HorseRacing.net as part of his Breeders' Cup Friday Picks column...

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies 2020

7

Princess Noor

  • Age: 2 /
  • Jockey: Victor Espinoza /
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert /
Morning Line Odds
1

Simply Ravishing

  • Age: 2 /
  • Jockey: Luis Saez /
  • Trainer: Ken McPeek /
Morning Line Odds
3

Dayoutoftheoffice

  • Age: 2 /
  • Jockey: Junior Alvarado /
  • Trainer: Timothy Hamm /
Morning Line Odds
5

Girl Daddy

  • Age: 2 /
  • Jockey: Joseph Talamo /
  • Trainer: Dale Romans /
Morning Line Odds
2

Vequist

  • Age: 2 /
  • Jockey: Joel Rosario /
  • Trainer: Robert Reid Jr. /
Morning Line Odds
4

Thoughtfully

  • Age: 2 /
  • Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr. /
  • Trainer: Steven Asmussen /
Morning Line Odds
6

Crazy Beautiful

  • Age: 2 /
  • Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. /
  • Trainer: Ken McPeek /
Morning Line Odds

If morning-line favorite Princess Noor (#7) actually ends up favored, there’s going to be an abundance of value elsewhere. Princess Noor may be a perfect 3-for-3 in her career, but she’s yet to run a truly fast race and is not in the same league as a few other fillies in this spot. If you’re betting her it’s purely because of her trainer Bob Baffert, which is why she’s going to be a third of the price she should be in the first place. She’s a complete pass for me in this race.

I think the main dilemma handicappers face in the Juvenile Fillies is whether they prefer the one-two finishers from the G1 Frizette, Dayoutoftheoffice (#3) and Vequist (#2), or the runaway winner of the G1 Alcibiades over this track, Simply Ravishing (#1). All three of these fillies have a very similar look as they won stakes races impressively on the main track at Saratoga over the summer before taking another step forward in their latest outings. Of the two camps, I think I come down more on the side of the Frizette duo.

Simply Ravishing had a very easy time of things in the Alcibiades as she was able to set a soft pace before bounding away in the stretch, whereas the pace was much quicker in the Frizette, which didn’t seem to hamper either Dayoutoftheoffice or Vequist, who were both right up on those fast fractions. Dayoutoftheoffice was a deserving winner of the race, but I don’t think there’s much separating these fillies, which is why I’m giving the slight nod to Vequist in this spot, who is an incredibly enticing 8-1 on the morning line. It’s possible that Dayoutoftheoffice applies early pressure to Simply Ravishing, which could set things up perfectly for Vequist to pull off the upset.

The only other filly I’d consider using is Girl Daddy (#5), who improved markedly last out in the G3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs. She may have been somewhat fortunate to win that day given the trouble Crazy Beautiful (#6) had, however she’s on an upward trajectory and Dale Romans knows how to send out a winner in a big race here.

Main:  2,3     Backup (priority):  1

Order of preference:  2-3-1-5

Breeders' Cup Picks

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Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
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Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +