Longshot Ted: Back this 40/1 shot for the Grand National

A bumper field will line up for the 2021 Grand National at Aintree.
A bumper field will line up for the 2021 Grand National at Aintree.

Ed Quigley picks out a big-priced tip for the Grand National at Aintree, while picks out his best for the Topham Chase...

Ed Quigley's Grand National Tip

Anibale Fly at 40/1 with William Hill

Ed Quigley's Topham Chase Tip

Morning Vicar at 14/1 with bet365

The to Aintree countdown is on, in which we look set for some cracking contests. The prospect of Chantry House, The Big Breakaway, Fiddlerontheroof and Eklat De Rire all locking horns over 3m is one I am particularly looking forward to. However, I'm also getting excited about the Grand National that is just 11 days away, and naturally, there are a few who jump off the page. None more so from a handicapping perspective than the Tony Martin trained ANIBALE FLY. The 11-year-old will be tuned up for this after a spin around Fairyhouse in the Bobbyjo Chase last month, and this lighter preparation could work in his favour.

Purely on weights and measures though, he comes into the reckoning. He was 4th in this contest in 2018 off a rating of 159; and in 2019 he came 5th off 164. The test clearly suits, and he arrives this time around as a more street-wise 11-year-old off 155. After his first attempt at the Grand National, connections reported that they felt a busy season may have just taken the edge off him having contested Irish and Cheltenham Gold Cups in the two preceding months as he finished a very tired horse. Coming in here a fresher horse looks a shrewd move, and with only 10st 12lb on his back, it would be no surprise to see him in the hunt once more with Bristol De Mai looking likely to head the weights. The 40/1 on offer for a horse who has run well in this off higher marks looks more than fair.

Grand National Tips

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Also, in Liverpool, I will be keeping a close eye on the Topham Chase. I tipped MORNING VICAR for The Kim Muir, and I got quite excited at one point. He absolutely tanked around Cheltenham for about 90% of the race. He moved menacingly into contention under Nico De Boinville, before the petrol light came on after a mistake three from home, and the Nicky Henderson charge eventually faded into a well beaten 8th, 40 lengths behind the winner Mount Ida. It is also worth noting that perhaps Morning Vicar didn't have the best of trips as he went quite wide coming down the back straight and might have used up more gas than ideal at an early part of the contest.

Generally speaking, he is a sound jumper, and dropping back in trip for Topham Chase looks ideal - especially as he appreciates decent ground, and the weather forecast for Aintree looks favourable. The evidence of what we saw at Prestbury Park suggests that tackling staying trips will be on the back-burner for now, and this looks the perfect assignment for him. Eased 1lb to a mark of 133, he could easily prove better than that mark on spring ground over this trip. The Seven Barrows outfit have won this three times in the last seven years and a big run should be on the cards.

Grand National
Anibale Fly silk

Anibale Fly

Pulled Up
Topham Chase
Morning Vicar silk

Morning Vicar

Unseated

Selections:

Grand National, Saturday 10th April - back Anibale Fly, 1pt win at 40/1 (William Hill)

Topham Chase, Friday 9th April - back Morning Vicar, 1pt win at 14/1 (generally)

Grand National Odds

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