Bet365 Gold Cup Tips: Double Figure Pick In Saturday's Big Sandown Handicap

The British jumps season comes to a close at Sandown on Saturday, with Dan Skelton set to be crowned Champion Trainer for the first time and Sean Bowen the defending Champion Jockey retaining that title. The big betting race of the day is the bet365 Gold Cup and Billy Grimshaw is sweet on last year's winner backing up, despite the addition of plenty of weight compared to 12 months ago...

Road To Home is likely to be popular in the bet365 Gold Cup for Willie Mullins after being beaten just a neck at Cheltenham, and he remains unexposed as a staying chaser. He has already shown he can operate from 2m3f through to 3m2f and has shaped as if this sort of test could bring about more improvement. The question is whether his price fully reflects that potential already, particularly in a competitive handicap where he is still being asked to prove himself at the trip at a jumping test of a track like Sandown..

Havaila is another who makes plenty of appeal on paper. He improved again when winning the Sussex National by five lengths and clearly has the stamina for a searching race. The issue is that he has been hit with a 10lb rise and now has to prove he can make another leap forward in a much deeper race. Progressive stayers always deserve respect in this contest, but he is no longer sneaking in under the radar and I am not excited by his price whatsoever given the dangers he faces.

Montregard also brings a likeable profile after improving back on better ground when winning the Swinley at Ascot, and that form has a solid look to it. He is clearly going the right way and has conditions to suit here, so it is easy to see why he features prominently in the market. Ask Brewster, fresh from winning the Kim Muir, has a similar upwardly mobile feel and should also enjoy good ground over this sort of trip, although Road To Home's connections will be confident they can reverse the form.

Even so, the value may sit with the proven Sandown horse rather than the potential improvers. RESPLENDENT GREY won this race last year, has no issue with the track, stays well, handles a sound surface and arrives with a season behind him that looks easier to forgive than the market is suggesting.

The obvious concern with Resplendent Grey is that he is 11lb higher than when winning this race 12 months ago, but that rise is not enough to put me off. Horses do not often win staying handicap chases at Sandown by accident, and last year’s success proved he has the right blend of stamina, jumping, balance and attitude for this unique test. In a race where several rivals still have to prove they can cope with everything Sandown throws at them, the reigning champion already has the proven form. This race nearly always goes to a hold up horse coming with a powerpacked late drive and we know that'll be exactly Sean Bowen's plan.

His latest run in the Ultima at Cheltenham is easy enough to forgive. First-time blinkers seemed to light him up too much and he was ultimately well beaten, but that was not the run of a horse who had suddenly lost his ability. It was more a case of the headgear making him race in a way that did not suit and getting too close, too soon. Back at Sandown, over a trip and surface that play to his strengths, there is every chance he can settle better and get into the same grinding rhythm that made him so effective in this race last year as he reeled in the long time leader.

I believe the market has overreacted to one poor Cheltenham run here, while giving too much credit to the sexier, unexposed youngsters vying for this crown. Road To Home, Havaila, Montregard and Ask Brewster all have obvious claims, but none offer the same proven race-specific evidence as last year’s winner. At 12/1, we are getting an each-way price about the defending champion in his ideal conditions.

I wouldn't be surprised, truth be told, to see one of the younger brigade improve past him but he is as close to a placepot lock as possible and as such he rates a strong each-way tip for the big race on Saturday.