Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Antepost Tips: Fay Can Stay The Distance

One of the main points of debate all season has been where will Fact To File end up at the Cheltenham Festival? The six year old Willie Mullins trained star looks to have the pace for the Turners, but with the Gold Cup his long term aim connections are leaning to sending him to this race, the Brown Advisory. Despite his obvious claims, Billy Grimshaw is set to take him on at the prices and makes the case for a home team representative here...

First things first, by siding against Fact To File I am by no means crabbing the horse. It is nothing short of phenomenal to see what he has already achieved since heading from bumpers straight over fences for team Mullins and I hope it is actually a precedent set for the future. Let's get these chasers in the making chasing as fast as possible, ideally by skipping bumpers but feel free to skip the novice hurdling campaign if needs be. Anyway, I will leave that mini-rant about cautious planning for another day and focus instead on the field that should line up for this three mile showpiece.

Fact To File is the obvious place to start and he seems tactically versatile from what we have seen so far. Last season's race was won by a front runner who, it is widely agreed, is not as good as the second but got him out of his comfort zone. The Real Whacker could still surprise in the Gold Cup this season, but in the 2024 Brown Advisory it is less clear which horse will be the definite front runner this season.

If Giovinco or Apple Away run for Lucinda Russell they could set the pace, although it'd be a massive shock were either to prove good enough. At Cheltenham there has been a marked bias for those who are prominent in recent years in the handicaps and so we will almost certainly see someone take the bull by the horns, and if it is not one of the Russell brigade I wouldn't be surprised to see Harry Skelton try to nick a few lengths early doors aboard Grey Dawning. He has improved bundles for chasing and looks a very accomplished jumper, but his participation is not confirmed at this stage with trainer Dan Skelton noting that he could yet drop back in trip for the Turners if the ground comes up soft. If he comes here I will have huge respect for him, but he doesn't rate an antepost play.

Outside of Fact To File, the main Irish challenger comes in the shape of Monty's Star for Henry De Bromhead in the Minella Indo colours. He is very much in the Minella Indo mould too, a smart hurdler who has improved for fences and looks tailor made for this sort of test. The aforementioned Minella Indo of course had a brilliant battle with Allaho in this race back in 2020, only to be nabbed in the shadow of the post by the fast finishing Champ in the green and gold. Fact To File one suspects won't end up as far back as Champ was that day, but nevertheless of the two Irish raiders prominent in the market I do feel Fact To File will have his measure when push comes to shove.

The presence of the star novice chaser of the season in here could well mean a small field, with Fact To File scaring plenty off. However, one horse who is certain to take his chance and who I think is being underestimated in this race is STAY AWAY FAY. The 2023 Albert Bartlett winner was not well fancied that day, indeed he went off 18/1, but he won the race in the style of one who is made for Cheltenham and his finishing effort is unbelievably strong.

Paul Nicholls made the bold call of putting him in the Cotswold Chase, a Grade 1 in open company, at Cheltenham last time out and while some - this humble scribe included - were disappointed to see him beaten that day, on reflection it was a brilliant performance when clearly not cherry ripe. Nicholls is not normally one for a prep run and his horses usually turn up trained to the minute, however he was keen to exclaim how thrilled he was with that placed effort considering where the horse was on his road to the Festival.

Perhaps Fact To File is a freak and nothing will lay a glove on him. Perhaps something will steal the race from the front. But I cannot shake the vision of Stay Away Fay staying on best in last year's premier staying hurdle for novices here. If this race is run at the clip it promises to be, he will relish things and with Harry Cobden - champion jockey elect - in the plate and itching for Festival winners, I think he is a fair bet at the prices right now to upset the favourite and add a second Cheltenham Festival win.