Cesarewitch Preview: Mullins Mare Can Exploit Her Flat Mark

The Club Godolphin Cesarewitch is one of the great betting heats of the Flat calendar, and with 29 runners set to go to post for the 2m2f marathon at Newmarket on Saturday (3.40pm) there is no shortage of angles to chase. Last year's winner Beylerbeyi heads the market, but a big field and a big price are what this race is all about.

Billy Grimshaw has been through the card, the trends and the market, and has landed on a mare with a Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 run on her CV who is lining up off a Flat mark of just 87.

Jumps-trained horses have a strong record in this race and Emmet Mullins has been here before, landing the 2023 renewal with The Shunter, so I'm happy to go down the same road with DREAM ON BABY at 16/1 each-way. The six-year-old mare was backed from 25/1 earlier in the week and it isn't hard to see why. She has been rated as high as 139 over hurdles, finished second in a Grade 2 over three miles at Doncaster, won a Listed at Kempton and took her chance in the Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. Yet here she is, running off 87 on the Flat.

Her Flat form isn't much to look at on paper, to be fair, but that is rather the point. She was third over 1m4f at Tramore in July at odds-on before winning over two miles on the same track in August, and Mullins has made it clear she has been crying out for a step up in trip. This is her first Flat handicap, he thinks she is nicely weighted and, with all that stamina on her hurdles CV, I don't have any worries about her getting the 2m2f. She was beaten at Galway in a big Listed handicap hurdle on 1 August, but I'm happy to overlook that.

The trends are on her side too. Nine of the last ten winners carried 9st 2lb or less and she is on 8st 11lb. Nine of the last ten were rated between 86 and 97, and she sits right in the middle of that on 87. Seven of the last ten were aged between four and six, and she is six, while Irish-trained horses have won six of the last ten runnings. Seven of the last ten winners were 10/1 or shorter, so I'm not pretending a 16/1 shot is a certainty, but I'm happy to take the price.

The stall is the one thing I would change. She is drawn 20 of the 29 runners, which isn't what I would have ordered, but the bias over this trip is only a mild one and Gavin Ryan has plenty of time to find a position.

At the head of the market, last year's winner Beylerbeyi is a perfectly good favourite on 9st 11lb, but he is yet to win this season and is drawn 22, so I'm happy to take him on at around 4/1 to 5/1. Dawn Rising was second here last year and Ryan Moore takes the ride at around 5/1, but no eight or nine-year-old has won this in the last ten years and he is a nine-year-old. Sea Lantern has had just four career starts and connections have said he wants some rain, which makes him a doubt on this ground.

Jim Goldie's Mountain Road is the one most of the pundits seem to like at 10/1 or so. He was second at York last time and Goldie is a master with this type of horse, so he would be the one I would want on my side if I were adding a saver. Mullins' other runner Cock And Bull is also popular at 12/1, but he has gone up 10lb for his win at Galway, has had 73 days off and is drawn 23, so I prefer the stable's other runner.

Dream On Baby is an each-way bet in a 29-runner field, so take the extra places if you can find them. For a mare with her stamina credentials and a mark that looks well below what she has shown over hurdles, 16/1 looks the sort of price that could pay for the day.