Champion Stakes Preview: Bay City Roller Can Upset The Big Two

The Champion Stakes is the big one on Champions Day at Ascot and it is a cracking six-runner renewal. £1.3 million is up for grabs at 4.00pm over a mile and a quarter, with the ground good.

Calandagan and Ombudsman are joint favourites at around 5/2, but I think the value lies with a horse who has been running big races all year and keeps finding one too good.

The two market leaders have the best figures, so let's start there. Calandagan is the defending champion. Francis-Henri Graffard's five-year-old won this by 2¼ lengths from Ombudsman last year, has won three of his five starts at Ascot and is rated 127. He is also a class act, but he has not run since being beaten by Kalpana in the King George 84 days ago and I do not think 5/2 leaves any margin for error.

Ombudsman is the top-rated horse in the race on 132 and the Gosdens' five-year-old has a superb record this year, winning the Dubai Turf, the Brigadier Gerard and the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was only fourth in the Juddmonte International last time, though, and his trainer has said he wants good ground or better. He will be hard to beat, but I would rather take them on.

The Gosdens also run Devil's Advocate, who is expected to set the pace for his stablemate. He is 150/1 for a reason.

BAY CITY ROLLER is my selection. George Scott's four-year-old is rated 124, level with Almaqam, and he has been the model of consistency this season. He won the Coronation Cup by ten lengths, then finished second in the Prix Foy and second again in the Arc, beaten only a length and a quarter on the biggest day of the European season.

There are two questions. The first is the drop back to a mile and a quarter, and the second is quick ground with no previous Ascot runs. But I do not see either as a big problem. Those figures say he has plenty of ability, and I do not think he is short of pace after the way he won the Coronation Cup.

Of the rest, Constitution River is the only three-year-old in the field. Aidan O'Brien's colt won the Eclipse and the French Derby, but he has never raced at Ascot and he is 12/1 for a reason. Almaqam was third in this last year at 28/1 and won the Tattersalls Gold Cup, but he has yet to win in three tries at Ascot.

With only six runners, I think the market is underestimating BAY CITY ROLLER. Calandagan and Ombudsman have the stronger ratings, but a horse who was beaten by a length and a quarter in the Arc is not far behind them, and he is a bigger price.

At 9/2 I am happy to take him on to win, and he is as big as 5/1 with some firms. Check the each-way terms with your bookmaker if you want to play each-way, as it is a small field.