Cheltenham Festival 2024: Mid Season Assessment of the Tuesday and Wednesday Grade 1's
Midway through the season our Festival expert, @RoadCheltenham, casts his critical eye over the antepost markets for the Tuesday and Wednesday Grade 1's...
We’re exactly 63 days away from the 2024 Cheltenham Festival and anticipation is increasing ahead of the biggest meeting of the year for jumps racing fans. However, there is still plenty of water to go under the bridge between now and Tuesday 12th March.
The Dublin Racing Festival is now less than a month away and fans will be hoping to see their Cheltenham selections lining up at Leopardstown in February. After all, the DRF has been the best ‘trial’ weekend for Cheltenham since its inception in 2018.
As Leopardstown edges ever closer, I’m taking a look at some of the Cheltenham antepost markets for the Grade 1 races and we’ll hopefully find some value in the betting. There are a few short priced favourites but many races remain wide open…
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Tuesday: Supreme Novices Hurdle
JP McManus has two at the top of the market, though we are yet to see A DREAM TO SHARE over hurdles after he suffered a setback earlier in the campaign. However, word is that he is back in training and could be ready to run at the end of the month.
Meanwhile, JERIKO DU REPONET has been a bit of a talking horse since he arrived at Seven Barrows and he is clearly a top prospect. In terms of form, he’s not really been tested yet but we’ll hopefully see him in the Grade 2 Supreme trial at Haydock later this month.
If you’re considering backing IT’S FOR ME, I would hold off for now. He defeated subsequent Grade 1 winner CALDWELL POTTER on hurdles debut but missed the rematch at Christmas and I’d like to see him entered for a race before getting involved.
Arkle Novices Chase
Is it worth taking even money for MARINE NATIONALE in the Arkle? I’m genuinely struggling to find an intended runner to take him on with. It feels crazy to suggest that the race is his to lose after a Beginners Chase but he’s certainly the one to beat.
You’d need to take a huge leap of faith to trust FACILE VEGA after his lacklustre performance in the Grade 1 at Christmas while MISTER POLICEMAN would need to improve drastically on his workmanlike debut success at Fairyhouse.
BLOOD DESTINY is the potential fly in the ointment – I was very impressed with his chase debut at Naas. For my money, he is the each way play at this stage. He won over 2m3f that day but jumped like a buck and he’ll have no trouble dropping to the minimum trip.
Champion Hurdle
Two words: CONSTITUTION HILL. As long as he’s A1, the Champion Hurdle is his. He was so superior in last year’s race and it is difficult to see how STATE MAN, a seven-time Grade 1 winner, can reverse form with Nicky Henderson’s stable star. Enough said.
Mares Hurdle
This looks wide open and I certainly don’t think LOSSIEMOUTH should be as short as 11/4 to win the race. While she was clear of her rivals as a juvenile, that form doesn’t always work out and I’d be keen to take her on at the prices.
I prefer GALA MARCEAU and believe the 2m4f trip will really suit her. She produced a huge performance at Auteuil in May and I can see her turning the tables with Lossiemouth. Both are yet to run this term but it was always the plan to give both a decent break.
YOU WEAR IT WELL disappointed me at Sandown but she’s worth keeping an eye on ahead of her next run. However, ASHROE DIAMOND would be the one for me. She won the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse in April and I can see her travelling strongly before pouncing late.
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Wednesday: Ballymore Novices Hurdle
BALLYBURN is hard to oppose based on his last run but I want to see how FIREFOX gets on in the Lawlor’s of Naas first. Touted for the Ballymore by many at the end of last season, the Willie Mullins runner is a fair favourite at this stage.
Caldwell Potter, mentioned earlier, won the Grade 1 2m race at Leopardstown at Christmas but Gordon Elliott hinted at a step up in trip. He’ll need soft conditions to be seen at his best and you’d imagine PREDATORS GOLD will be given a chance to reoppose over a trip.
I’m a massive fan of ILE ATLANTIQUE and I’m hoping he goes and wins the Lawlor’s on Friday. If so, I think he’ll line up in this race and BALLYBURN may be re-routed to the Supreme – that’s how good I think Ile Atlantique could be.
Brown Advisory Novices Chase
A setback for KLASSICAL DREAM gave GRANGECLARE WEST the chance to stake his claim as Willie Mullins’ top chance for this race and boy did he take it. It’s hard to see Paul Townend getting off him after that but things may change after the Dublin Racing Festival.
Connections have spoken so highly of CORBETTS CROSS but he’s been disappointing. I like STAY AWAY FAY and would trust him in a battle but GIOVINCO did little to enhance his form and I doubt Cheltenham’s Old Course will really suit him.
IL EST FRANCAIS is unlikely to come over to Cheltenham and then there are several horses in the betting who shouldn’t be good enough. I like MONTY’S STAR at an each way price, I was taken with his jumping on both chase starts and he can hopefully run a big race.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
This looks like a straight match between EL FABIOLO and JONBON. With Energumene ruled out for the season, it gives El Fabiolo the chance to stamp his authority on the division but it won’t be entirely straightforward for the Simon Munir & Isaac Souede runner.
Jonbon, five lengths adrift of El Fabiolo in last year’s Arkle, has improved considerably since that Cheltenham defeat. He won at a very short price at Aintree before stepping into open company for the Celebration Chase at the end of the campaign.
Since then, he’s won the Shloer Chase and the Tingle Creek and we could be set for an early clash between the two in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase later. At this moment in time, I’m not even bothering to look past the top two in the betting.
Champion Bumper
It looks like a fairly sub-standard year for Willie Mullins and his bumper crop, with several well regarded types failing to win first time out over the Christmas period. CANTICO was one that attracted plenty of attention but he failed to sparkle.
There are some seriously strong vibes surrounding ROMEO COOLIO and we’ll hopefully see him out later this month. He’s likely to have one run before heading to the Festival and the last horse to win the Cheltenham bumper after just one run was Briar Hill in 2013.
Until he does it on the track, you’ve got to go with the proven form and stablemate JALON D’OUDAIRIES sets the standard. His victory over Redemption Day – who cannot reoppose at Cheltenham due to his age – is the standout piece of bumper form this season.
That's the first two days covered. Stay tuned to HorseRacing.net for my assessment of the Thursday and Friday Grade 1's.
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