Dewhurst Preview: Darkness Falls Can Upset The Odds-On Favourite

The Darley Dewhurst Stakes is the big race on Saturday's card at Newmarket, with just five runners going to post at 3pm for the Group 1 over seven furlongs. Godolphin's unbeaten Desert Castle is the odds-on favourite and the early market leader for next year's 2000 Guineas, but he faces two Ballydoyle rivals, one of whom has already won a Group 1.

Billy Grimshaw thinks the odds-on price is there to be shot at and has landed on the Ballydoyle colt who is already a Group 1 winner.

Desert Castle is a very good horse and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. The Frankel colt is two from two, beat Sergei Diaghilev by three lengths in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster despite being slowly away, and he heads the betting for next year's 2000 Guineas. Charlie Appleby has won three of the last seven Dewhursts with Pinatubo, Native Trail and Shadow Of Light, so nobody should be surprised if William Buick is celebrating again. The problem is the price. At around 4/5 to 10/11 he is odds-on to win a Group 1 on only his third start, which is a very short price for a horse who has still to prove himself at this level.

That is where I would rather be with DARKNESS FALLS at around 7/4. Aidan O'Brien's Camelot colt has already done what Desert Castle has yet to do, winning the Group 1 Golden Fleece Stakes at Leopardstown last month by four and a half lengths. He had finished third on his debut before winning his maiden at the Curragh, and the manner of that Leopardstown win, with Ryan Moore reporting that the step up in trip was no problem, saw him go to the head of the Derby betting.

The obvious question is whether seven furlongs is too sharp for a horse who won the Golden Fleece over nine, and it is a fair one. But his Racing Post rating of 121 is only two pounds shy of Desert Castle's 123, he has the proven Group 1 class, and Ballydoyle have been clear that the Dewhurst has been the plan for a while as the logical step towards a Guineas campaign next year. O'Brien and Appleby have won seven of the last ten renewals between them, so this really does look like a straight fight between the two big yards.

Great Barrier Reef is the other Ballydoyle runner. He won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, but he lost his unbeaten record at the Curragh last time and then missed the Middle Park with a poor scope, so he has questions to answer on fitness as well as the step up to seven furlongs. Gentle Hurricane carries the hopes of Andrew Balding, who has won this twice in the last four years with Chaldean and Gewan, but he is 40/1 for a reason. Jassas is Appleby's second string and, as a Haydock novice winner, looks more of a pacemaker than a winner.

With only five runners there are not many hard-luck stories to be had, so I would rather take 7/4 about a Group 1 winner than odds-on about a horse who is yet to try the grade. Desert Castle may well be the next Guineas favourite and could win this impressively, but Darkness Falls looks the value to me and is a fair win bet.