Futurity Trophy Preview: Burning Up Can Upset Noble Exhibit

The Futurity Trophy is the last Group 1 of the British Flat season and it looks a fascinating renewal. Seven two-year-olds go to post at 1.30pm on Saturday over a mile for £275,000, and the ground is set to be testing at Doncaster, with the clerk of the course warning that heavy could come into the description.

Noble Exhibit heads the market at 6/4 with William Hill, but I want to take him on with a colt who has already won on soft ground and looks a big price to do it again.

Aidan O'Brien is chasing a record 13th win in this race and he runs three. Noble Exhibit is the pick of them in the market after making all to win the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh last month, and he won that easily. He deserves to be favourite, but the ground is a real question. He was taken out of a race at Galway in September because the soft ground was unsuitable, and 6/4 is short enough if it rides as testing as expected.

Al Hudaiba is 7/1 for Charlie Appleby and William Buick. He has won four of his six starts, including the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket and a Grade 1 at Woodbine in Canada last time. He clearly has class, but he tends to race keenly and hang, and all of his British form has come on good or quicker ground.

BURNING UP is my selection at 7/2 with William Hill. Karl Burke's colt won both his starts at Haydock, including a novice on soft ground in September, when he was ridden to lead over a furlong out and ran on well. He then went to Newmarket for the Group 2 Royal Lodge on much quicker ground and was beaten only a length and a quarter into second.

He looked unbalanced in the Dip there but rallied and was running on at the finish, which suggests this stiff mile at Doncaster will suit him. Clifford Lee has ridden him in all three of his starts and keeps the ride. He has already won over this trip on soft ground, and 7/2 with William Hill is bigger than most firms are offering.

Of the rest, Breacher is 10/1. He was third in both the Solario and the Champagne Stakes, and his trainer thinks the step up to a mile will help. Sergei Diaghilev, another of the O'Brien trio, is 11/1 after finishing second in both the Champagne and the Autumn Stakes, and he is still looking for his first Group win. Giant Sequoia won the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh but was only sixth in the National Stakes and is 14/1, while Andrew Balding's Gran Dia is 12/1 after winning his only start, on soft ground at Salisbury. His connections have said this is a big step up in class.

I am happy to take 7/2 about BURNING UP to win. He has the soft-ground form that the favourite lacks, and he was finishing strongly in the Royal Lodge.