ITV Racing Tips: A Trio Of Saturday Fancies Across Cheltenham & Doncaster
The Showcase Meeting day one is in the history books and day two is now fast approaching. Billy Grimshaw had a couple to keep onside on Friday on the ITV televised card and has another two for Saturday, with a bonus Doncaster selection thrown in for good measure in the big race, the Futurity Trophy...
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14:05 Doncaster - Futurity Trophy
As is always the danger given the time of year this race takes place, this looks set to be a real mud bath on Town Moor. Truth be told, I wouldn't be surprised to see a fair few non-runners, especially with Aidan O'Brien having three in, including the top two. Hopefully not though as that would really scupper it as a contest. I'll pen this mini preview assuming all six stand their ground anyway and prices stay similar to what I am seeing and HAWK MOUNTAIN, to my eye anyway, should not be double the price of Benvenuto Cellini.
Yes, Christophe Soumillon has chosen the market leader of the Ballydoyle trio and that should come into consideration, and yes he was mightily impressive last time out, however that was on good ground and this will be anything but. There are three chestnut Frankels set to run here and I'd wager all three will be much more at home with a quick surface to race on in due time, whereas Wootton Bassett - Hawk Mountain's late sire - threw out much more ground versatile horses. That was proven by Hawk Mountain's Beresford win on soft last time out.
Even on the form, I think there's a case to be made that Hawk Mountain's win last time out will actually stand him in better stead than the favourite's, with their victories coming in very different styles. Hawk Mountain was green as grass and had to work for his win but in the end did it nicely and looked like a horse who had learned on the job, while Benvenuto Cellini was all sparkling brilliance from the word go. With the mud flying, I think I'd rather be with the more battle-hardened animal and the one proven with give under hoof.
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14:20 Cheltenham - William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase
This is a ridiculously competitive race. Hyland is just about taking clear favouritism as I pen this piece and that's of no surprise to me given his phenomenal record at this meeting over the past two seasons, notching a couple of wins. He can be completely excused his Grand National effort given the yard he hails from has a wretched record in that contest, and his record fresh would certainly give you confidence. Nicky Henderson's quotes about the horse, however, would put you off somewhat, with him reporting in his Unibet blog that this is a pipe opener for the Coral Gold Cup.
Rock My Way is the horse Hyland is currently usurping and although he is undoubtedly well handicapped, given his yard have started this season with plenty looking in need of more work and the fact he could also be aiming for Newbury and a bigger prize, I am happy to avoid him. The Short Go could yet go off favourite if Henry De Bromhead has more success on Friday and the yard have of course won this race the last two seasons, but his price is just too short for me now in a field with more proven rivals.
Sean Bowen is a rider in red hot form too and he is an interesting booking by Emmet Mullins on board Backmersackme, who flopped last time out but is only six and could have bundles in hand over fences compared to his hurdles mark. If this is the day they've been tuning him up for he's the one I fear most, but the horse burdened with carrying my cash is INCH HOUSE. I thought the world of him heading into last season and was excited to see what Paul Nicholls could do with him following his switch, but the campaign was a total write off.
On his best form, he is seriously well handicapped and with reports from Ditcheat that he is in the finest fettle they've ever seen him, I am willing to chance that man Harry Cobden will get a tune out of him and maybe even lead them all a merry dance. It wouldn't be the first time a stable switcher took a season to settle and we are getting a juicy price.at 25s.
14:55 Cheltenham - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
This is the sort of race in which the best horse may not necessarily win and it can pay to read the racecard with a different filter to normal. Some horses here will of course be more than happy with a trot around and finishing in the places, but there will be others treating this as their big day and it is one of those contenders I think will come home in front. The Irish challenge is very strong, with Emmet Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead all represented.
I know my esteemed colleague @RoadCheltenham (read his thoughts on the Showcase Meeting here) is keen on the De Bromhead runner Quantum Quest but I fear there are bigger fish to fry for all of those crossing the Irish Sea down the line - possibly at this venue in March - but one team you can hang your hat on at the start of seasons is team Twiston Davies. Their top weight GOWEL ROAD is my play.
The pace bias at Cheltenham is not as pronounced over hurdles as it is over fences but I do always like to have a frontrunner onside rather than a stalker and Gowel Road will wear his heart on his sleeve and be trying for his life with Sam Twiston Davies doing the steering. I don't doubt that there is a better horse in this field, however I do doubt if whichever horse(s) that is will be as itching to win on this day as our lad.
His Cheltenham record is fantastic, his yard is in flying form to kick off the campaign as they so often are, and putting a line through his Stayers' Hurdle flop, which came at the end of a long season, he should be shorter than 14s in here.
I think he has a tremendous chance of grabbing first place here but I love the fact we are getting nearly 3/1 for him to place with an each-way bet and with the extra places on offer, he is a solid each-way play to hopefully wrap up a profitable weekend.