ITV Racing Tips: Two Friday Picks at Cheltenham

Racing at Cheltenham is back once more and although the weather gods are not shining on Prestbury Park, it'll take a lot more than a little - or a lot - of rain to dampen jumps fans spirits. Billy Grimshaw has two ITV Racing tips from Cheltenham and makes the case here...

13:45 Cheltenham

I am penning this piece on Thursday afternoon with the ground at Cheltenham officially good to soft, good in places. However, just google Cheltenham weather and the first thing you see is "severe rainfall warning" and that's enough to make me think we will be looking at soft as a minimum for Friday's racing. There are plenty in here who won't mind that one bit, particularly the favourite Fugitif who has won over C&D before with soft in the description. Last year's 1st and 3rd lock horns once more and I would fancy Eldorado Allen will reverse placings with Numitor given the massive swing in weights here between the eleven year olds, but the three horses mentioned all to me are at risk of being undone by a younger veteran.

I was interested in Lord Baddesley at the prices considering he routed a field to win by 18L last time out fresh off a wind op, but he has a much worse record with give in the ground and as such I think he is a potential NR in the morning. Can You Call, another ten year old, makes appeal too and will appreciate this slightly stiffer test than what he faced last time out, but he has a habit of finding one too good.

It is not unheard of in these veteran races to see an outsider surprise everyone and bounce right back to form from nowhere and looking at the form figures of ESCARIA TEN, that's what he'll have to do to win here. Scratch a little deeper beneath the surface of his last run however, and I think a case can be made for the ex Gordon Elliott trained ten year old. He was running well for a long way in a three mile race at this track last time out, when an 80/1 no hoper, but weakened quickly 3f out and was puled up. The ground was quicker that day, however, and he was running over too far so i wonder given how huge his BSP was, was that merely a sighter and this is the big day?

You don't have to go too far back in his form book to see some really good runs, notably pushing Stumptown to within five lengths on the cross country course with the mud flying. It'll probably need to be a biblical deluge for the ground to come up as soft as he needs it, but I do quite fancy him to run a big race off a featherweight in this company and wouldn't be surprised if this has been a long term target since last season ended. He shouldn't be the outsider of the field and is still only ten so may have some fight left in him.

15:30 Cheltenham

Jonbon should win the Shloer before this but at evens he doesn't really excite me and there is a nagging doubt about his Cheltenham record being not quite as good as everywhere else, so that race is a simple no bet contest. No such issues here though in the Hyde and my bet of the day is on the drift while I pen this piece, which is always a bonus. WELONLYHAVEDONE represents an uncharacteristically out of form Gavin Cromwell, who has made the cold list his home of late. That will put some off, but not me.

Alarm bells would be ringing for a lot of trainers, but I am not concerned when it comes to Cromwell having a dry spell as he is the master target trainer and clearly is just starting slowly this campaign. His big hopes will be ready and anything he sends to Cheltenham is always a big hope. This lad should really be 2-2 over obstacles but tipped up at the last at Galway last time out and for that I think he is being wildly disrespected at north of 6/1 in a race like this. Were he to have stood up and won I'd guess he'd be closer to 3/1 on both his maiden win and his bumper form, so the price is simply too good to refuse.

This is not a weak race and it is worth paying attention to the glowing terms in which Harry Cobden speaks about his ride No Drama This End. He is by no means as uber bullish as the trainer he rides for Paul Nicholls when it comes to any horse he's associated with and so his praise of this novice carries weight, so don't be surprised to see him in the mix. I don't think his form stacks up with the Irish raider, however.

Favourite Heads Up looks just too short at around 2/1 given the Champion Bumper last season is a piece of form many are not high on, and although he won well on hurdling debut at Listowel and that form has been franked, he has to prove he acts on soft ground. The Skelton pair are tough to split and Henry De Bromhead's King's Bucks could be the play if the ground becomes a bog, but I do think Welonlyhavedone is a stand out bet at 6/1 and for each-way or win only punters, he rates a confident tip.