ITV Racing Tips: Two Saturday Fancies On Dewhurst Day

Billy Grimshaw returns with his latest ITV Racing tips on Saturday as Newmarket stages Dewhurst Day, with a competitive card at York providing the supporting act.

Eight races will be shown live on ITV1 and STV from Newmarket and York, with the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes and the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch the headline attractions at Headquarters. Billy has gone through the televised schedule and picked out two bets away from the big two, starting with a lightly raced Gosden three-year-old in the 20-runner handicap at York before siding with a market leader whose ground has finally come right in the Autumn Stakes.

Newmarket is good to firm and York is good to soft at the time of writing.

14:05 York – For The Fans Handicap

Twenty runners, a handful of them with obvious credentials, and a price that isn't going to make anyone's week on its own, but I keep coming back to WATER TO WINE at around 4/1.

John and Thady Gosden's three-year-old has had five career starts and won three of them, including the latest, so this isn't a horse who needs me to talk him up through a big rise in the weights. He makes his handicap debut off 104, which looks a perfectly workable starting point for a colt who is open to more improvement, and I'm always happy to side with a Gosden three-year-old who has more miles in the tank than his rivals.

There is a pulled-up in the form figures, and I'm content to put that down to quick ground, which he certainly won't have to worry about at York with some ease underfoot. He has also been gelded and goes in cheekpieces, which are exactly the sort of changes I like to see on a horse who has already shown plenty at his best.

Stall 20 isn't what I would have ordered, I'll admit, and it is the one thing that stops me being more bullish. Over ten furlongs there is time to find a position though, and Luke Catton's 3lb claim is a useful help.

Grey Cuban is the one at the top of the weights on 107 and he can't be dismissed. Hugo Palmer's five-year-old was my fancy at Ayr last month and, while he didn't oblige, he has run well enough in defeat to stay on the radar. William Haggas's Yabher is another with a fair profile off 102. I would still rather side with the horse who is heading in the right direction, and at around 4/1 he is no gift in a field this big, but I think he's the one with the most to give.

14:25 Newmarket – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3)

Back in August I wrote that I was less convinced Roger Varian's ROCK MONTREAL would thrive if the mud started flying. With Newmarket riding good to firm on Saturday, that worry goes out of the window and I'm more than happy to back him at around 11/8.

The Godolphin colt is the highest-rated runner in the field on 106, seven pounds clear of Notable Dream on 99, and his form figures read 12. He won on his debut at Yarmouth before being beaten a head by Forbidden Fire in the Listed Flying Scotsman at Doncaster, and I think that form looks strong. The third in that race, Nabati, has since gone on to win the Group 2 Mill Reef at Newbury.

Varian described him as shaping a bit like a miler after Doncaster, and connections have swerved the Dewhurst for this step up to a mile. William Buick takes the ride. A colt with the best rating, a perfectly suited trip and the quick ground he wants is a combination I can't really argue with.

There is plenty to respect in behind. Charlie Appleby's Al Jabbar was second on his first start and then won, while Aidan O'Brien's Sergei Diaghilev brings Ryan Moore and the Ballydoyle stamp, so I wouldn't call this a gimme. At around 11/8 you are not going to get rich, but I think Rock Montreal is the most likely winner and a fair win bet.