ITV Racing Tips: Three Saturday Selections At Cheltenham
ITV Racing brings us a feast of top class action on Saturday, with the vast majority of attention focussed on Cheltenham but a good sprinkling of flat action from Newcastle also thrown in. Billy Grimshaw has been scouring this banging Cheltenham Saturday card all week and has three strong fancies..
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13:45 Cheltenham - Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices' Chase
Earlier in the week Lookaway was as big as 8/1 in places and that looked an each-way bet to nothing in here, so I am somewhat cursing myself that I did not take that antepost price and hope for him running away with this race to upset the hot favourite. The reason he has slashed in price is partly due to him being overs earlier, and partly due to the withdrawal of former seocnd fav Iberico Lord. Now the prices have corrected themselves and he's 3/1 second favourite, despite the potential advantage Cheltenham chases seem to give front runners I've no interest backing him to beat a horse I think is destined for big things in L'EAU DU SUD.
This was a very high class handicap hurdler last season, finishing second in both the Betfair and County Hurdles before finishing under two lengths back in the Scottish Champion Hurdle bunched finish in fifth. Clearly this was always going to be a smart novice chaser given his size and what the Skelton team always seem to produce from hurdlers with this profile, but it was impossible not to be impressed with his facile chase debut win at Stratford last time out.
He jumped like a seasoned veteran and never for a moment looked in danger, so with Lookaway in particular but also Western Zephyr in here guaranteed to set an honest pace, this looks absolutely tailormade for L'Eau du Sud. I'd be very disappointed to see him beaten as I do hope he can evolve into an Arkle hope for those on this side of the water, albeit he will have tough tests from both Seven Barrows and Closutton if that does come to pass.
14:55 Cheltenham - From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle
It's tough to look past the favourite for the Skeltons DOYEN QUEST here, with the team potentially having a good day considering I'm strong on L'Eau Du Sud earlier and don't think Protektorat is out of it in the Paddy Power (you can read my full preview of that race here). He's won at the course before, last April when toughing it out at 4/1, and started this season in excellent style with a Chepstow second just over a month ago.
The six year old is receiving over a stone from second favourite Gowel Road in here and that should be more than enough to assert over him, but aside from the weight it is that Chepstow form and the fact he is proven on good ground that makes me so keen on Doyen Quest in here. Despite the Silver Trophy only being 35 days ago the form has been franked on multiple occasions, with the third bolting up at Bangor (albeit in a mares' only race), the fourth winning next time out and even the sixth - who was miles off our pick here - winning on his next outing.
That race one suspects will continue to work out as the season progresses and while this step up in trip is a leap into the unknown for the Skelton charge, he should stay and is tactically versatile so I expect him to be one of Saturday's better backed horses and in the end win in convincing fashion.
15:30 Cheltenham - Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle
I couldn't get excited by anything on the flat at Newcastle and so my third and final tip for this piece is also at Cheltenham, with yet another favourite |(sorry!) who looks the one to beat. We've missed the boat in price terms as he was much bigger earlier in the week, but I still think anything north of 3/1 probably underestimates HAMSIYANN for a trainer in Tony Martin who one suspects is itching to make up for lost time after his ban.
The trainer will not want any accusations of skullduggery anywhere near him again and I am by no means even hinting at such a suggestion, however it doesn't take a rocket scientist to watch a few of this horse's recent runs and determine he will surely relish the step up in trip he finally gets here. His hurdling has not always been slick but with a flat rating of 87 and a jumps mark of just 111, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him make a mockery of this race and absolutely bolt up.
On the flat his best run came when chasing home Alphonse Le Grande, the horse who has been in the news so much lately after 'winning' the Cesarewitch, losing it in the stewards room and then winning it back on appeal. Clearly Hamsiyann is better than 111 and after watching back his run when a well backed and seriously hampered third at Ascot last time he was seen over hurdles, I'm supremely confident he gets the job done here. He weirdly as a Lope De Vega seems to relish good ground and with the horse always strong at the finish, finally stepping up to two and a half looks perfect and I'll be flabbergasted if he is out of the frame. I will also be shocked if he does not win.