The Weekend Wager: Raceolly's tips from Newbury

Mister Malarkey Jumps Last Newbury Grandstand

In this week's edition of The Weekend Wager, our regular tipping guru Raceolly has focused his attentions on the Ladbrokes Trophy card at Newbury, and has picked out his four best bets on the card...

13:15 Newbury - Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase

KILLER CLOWN got better and better last season and ran probably his best race when second at Newbury in March after going up 15lb and given a 70-day break. He’s been running very well over two-and-a-half miles on his last few runs, but always hinting that a step back up in trip would be ideal and he gets that here. He ran well for a long way at Aintree on return from a 183-day break, and has since had a wind operation. He gets the addition of first time cheekpieces here now with him race fit and with things falling in to place perfectly. Emma Lavelle has seen 47 of her 106 runners at least place this season (20 winners) and she is always worth following at this time of year having only twice dipped below a 17% win rate in the last 15 years in November. She also has a 22% win rate when combining with Tom Bellamy.

13:15 Newbury - Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase
Killer Clown silk

Killer Clown

lost

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13:50 Newbury - Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle

BOREHAM BILL is another who hits the Emma Lavelle stats and has Tom Bellamy riding as well. He becomes a different horse in a big field with a decent pace to aim at and that proved evident last time at Kempton when only beaten two lengths after a slowly run six runner race, but he won the Lanzarote Hurdle there a few months before at a massive 66/1 very nicely off a strong pace and a big field. The rain is also a nice bonus as his form on soft ground reads 24121 and this is the first time he encounters those conditions since winning the Lanzarote. He ran very well on his seasonal reappearance at Aintree when unfancied and getting beaten five lengths after leading until the last fence. That came after a 221-day break also and his handicap mark has dropped 5lbs since that run, and now finds himself just 1lb above the mark he won the Lanzarote off. Another Lavelle/Bellamy angle and worth a play at double figure odds

13:50 Newbury - Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle
Boreham Bill silk

Boreham Bill

Pulled Up

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15:00 Newbury - Ladbrokes Trophy

I’ve decided to stick to the Newbury card for the article here but the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle comes between this race and the Boreham Bill selection and it’s a very decent race. Aye Right would be my selection if playing it, as he hasn’t finished worse than third on his second start after a break and had a good prep last time over an inadequate trip, but it's a tricky race.

On to the big race of the day at Newbury and the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. This is a great race and one I can make a decent case for a fair few for but I’ve settled on Gary Moore’s FULL BACK, who looks to emulate Native River and Triolo D’Alene as recent six-year-old winners. Since being stepped up to three miles and chasing he has form figures of 11P27, the second was unlucky not to be another 1 after being caught on the post and beaten a neck - a performance that could be marked up after returning lame and minus a shoe. His jumping fell apart when pulling up when well fancied in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot, where again he’d lost a shoe, and he then came seven returning from a 176-day break at Chepstow on handicap debut in a race that’s working out well. He's still only six with nine total starts and has plenty of room for improvement off a current mark of 138, especially on the form of giving Acey Milan (136 rated chaser) a 31-length hammering and 139-rated Dolphin Square a six-and-a-half length beating. Gary Moore has a 26% win rate with his chasers this season which slightly jumps up to 27% in handicap chases. Jamie Moore has a 25% win rate for the yard this season and a 23% win rate in handicaps for a £79 profit if backing all his rides with £1 stake.

15:00 Newbury - Ladbrokes Trophy
Full Back silk

Full Back

lost

15:35 Newbury - Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase

I could make a very good case for Sao in this for Rebecca Menzies, but after a fair bit of deliberation I’ve settled on NUMITOR, who’s found his feet since going chasing last season. Form chasing now reads 11331 and wins coming on heavy and soft ground. The improved form since chasing could easily be chalked up to his excellent jumping, an asset which is so valuable for a front runner like him and it’s so hard to peg him back especially on bad ground. Tom Scudamore has a 38% win rate for the yard after three wins from eight rides and he rides Newbury very well boasting a 20% win rate over the last five years. The Main yard very rarely visit Newbury having only once had a runner here in the last five years.

15:35 Newbury - Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase
Numitor silk

Numitor

placed
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