Juddmonte International Betting Tips: Billy Grimshaw’s Big Race Preview & Best Bet

The opening day of York’s Ebor Festival serves up a Juddmonte International worthy of the name, with last year’s winner Ombudsman facing the brilliant three-year-old Constitution River in one of the most eagerly awaited clashes of the Flat season. Nine have been declared for the £1.5 million Group 1 over a mile and a quarter, and while there are credible dangers elsewhere, the market has understandably concentrated on the big two. Billy Grimshaw breaks down the race for us here and gives his best bet...

Ombudsman arrives as the established champion, officially rated 132 and unbeaten in three starts this year, while CONSTITUTION RIVER has won five on the spin and gets the crucial 7lb weight-for-age allowance. Add in York specialist Item, Group 1 winner Almaqam and a couple of likely pacemakers, and we should get a proper test. I am siding with the younger horse to take the next step and announce himself as the new star of the middle-distance division. This time of year, those weight allowances matter more and more.

The favourite is difficult to oppose on bare form. John and Thady Gosden’s five-year-old won this race 12 months ago and has returned even better in 2026, winning all three starts and producing a career-best display when slamming his rivals by four lengths in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. He is officially rated 132, has already proved that York, this trip and top-level pressure hold no fears, and William Buick knows him inside out. Devil’s Advocate should ensure there is enough pace for him to settle and use that long, relentless finishing run. There is very little not to like.

The issue is simply the price and the presence of what could be a superstar opponent in Constitution River. Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old has looked more impressive every time we have seen him this season. He overcame a poor draw to win the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly and then took another major leap forward in the Eclipse at Sandown, powering three lengths clear in his first clash with older horses. That made it five consecutive victories and there is still a strong feeling that we have not seen his ceiling. His official rating of 124 leaves him 8lb shy of Ombudsman, but he receives 7lb here, which effectively brings them almost level before we even consider further improvement. At around 13/8 against roughly 11/10 for Ombudsman, I would rather have the improving three-year-old on my side.

The pace should make this a proper race. Action looks likely to ensure a genuine gallop for the Ballydoyle number one, while Devil’s Advocate performs a similar role for Ombudsman. That reduces the chance of the contest turning into a sprint and should make this a true test over York’s extended mile and a quarter. Constitution River has already shown he can travel strongly off a good pace before quickening, and Ryan Moore should be able to get him into a comfortable rhythm from stall seven. If the leaders overdo it, the race could set up beautifully for both market principals, and the question will be which has the sharper finishing gear late on.

Item is the obvious third horse in. Andrew Balding’s colt has an excellent York record, having won the Dante over this course and distance in May before bouncing back from a disappointing Derby run to beat Pride Of Arras in the Sky Bet Stakes here last month. His ninth at Epsom came on soft ground over a mile and a half, and at a course that doesn't always correlate to the Knavesmire, so I am happy to forgive it. Back on a flat track, on good ground and over what looks his optimum distance, he is a serious rival. His official mark of 122 puts him only 2lb behind Constitution River and he receives the same weight-for-age allowance from Ombudsman. At around 7/1 he is the one I would want if looking beyond the front two, but he still needs to improve again against two horses who have already produced elite Group 1 performances.

Almaqam has already won at the top level this season, taking the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, but Ombudsman put him firmly in his place at Royal Ascot and it is difficult to see why that form should be reversed on good ground. He would become more interesting if the forecast rain turned the surface significantly softer. Hawk Mountain has twice finished behind Constitution River this summer and, while high class in his own right, the evidence suggests his stablemate has his measure. Pride Of Arras loves York and ran well behind Item last time but has plenty to find on ratings. Zaydann is perhaps the most intriguing outsider after winning five races in a row, yet he is jumping from Group 3 company into a contest containing two of the best middle-distance horses in Europe.

For me, then, it comes down to Ombudsman against Constitution River. Ombudsman is the safer proposition and nobody could argue with anyone taking odds-against about a defending champion rated 132 and arriving unbeaten this season. But betting is about price as much as probability, and I think the market is giving the younger horse slightly less respect than his chance deserves. Constitution River is already a dual Group 1 winner, receives 7lb, has improved with every run this year and may still have another chunk of progression to come. York’s long straight should suit him, the likely strong pace should suit him and Ryan Moore can sit wherever he wants without needing to manufacture the race.

If Ombudsman reproduces his Royal Ascot demolition job he could simply be too good, but Constitution River does not need to find much more to make the weight concession decisive. At around 13/8, I am happy to take that chance. CONSTITUTION RIVER is my selection to beat Ombudsman in what could be one of the races of the season.