Next General Election Odds: Labour Edge Reform After Keir Starmer Resigns

Keir Starmer’s resignation announcement has sparked an immediate shake-up in the UK political betting markets, with attention quickly turning to the next general election odds. Labour are still narrowly ahead in the latest most seats market at 8/5, but Reform UK are close behind at 7/4, leaving punters weighing up whether Labour can steady under a new leader or whether Nigel Farage’s party can capitalise before the country next goes to the polls.

Labour 8/5

Labour remain slight favourites in the next general election odds, but the market is clearly not treating Starmer’s resignation announcement as a straightforward reset. A new leader, that will almost certainly be 1/33 shot Andy Burnham, could give the party a chance to sharpen its message, calm internal tensions and rebuild support before the next national vote, but there is also a danger that the transition exposes further divisions at exactly the wrong time.

The key question for punters is whether Labour’s position in Parliament still makes them the most likely party to win the most seats, even if their wider political position has weakened. At 8/5, the odds suggest Labour are still respected by the market, but not trusted enough to be clear favourites.

Reform UK 7/4

Reform UK are now right on Labour’s heels at 7/4, underlining just how dramatically the political betting picture has changed. Nigel Farage’s party have been the major disruptors in recent UK politics, and Starmer’s departure gives Reform another opportunity to argue that the established parties are struggling to offer stability.

The big challenge for Reform remains converting national momentum into seats under the first-past-the-post system. Their price reflects serious market confidence, but also the uncertainty around how efficiently that support would translate at a general election.

Conservatives 9/2

The Conservatives are third in the betting at 9/2 and remain a live contender, but the market suggests they still have plenty to prove. Starmer’s resignation may give the Tories a chance to attack Labour instability, but they also face pressure from Reform UK and need to rebuild trust with voters after losing heavily in 2024.

At this stage, their route back looks more complicated than simply waiting for Labour to run into trouble. The Conservatives need to recover ground against both Labour and Reform, which explains why they are shorter than the outsiders but still some way behind the two market leaders.

Restore Britain 8/1

Restore Britain are an eye-catching fourth in the betting at 8/1, putting them ahead of more established names such as the Greens and Lib Dems. Their position in the market suggests bookmakers are pricing in the possibility of further disruption in UK politics before the next general election.

Winning the most seats would still require a huge breakthrough, but Restore Britain’s price is another sign that this is no longer being viewed as a simple Labour versus Conservative contest. With Reform already close to favouritism, the wider right of British politics is clearly a major focus in the betting. Restore are more than just a thorn in Reform's side.

Greens 16/1

The Greens are 16/1 and remain one of the more interesting outsiders. They have benefited from voter frustration with the bigger parties and could appeal to those looking for an alternative on the left, particularly if Labour’s leadership transition fails to settle the party quickly.

Their challenge, as always, is seats. The Greens can build support nationally and still find it difficult to turn that into a major Westminster breakthrough. That is why they are respected enough to sit ahead of the Lib Dems in this market, but still priced as outsiders to win the most seats.

Other Contenders

The Lib Dems are 40/1 and remain capable of targeting specific constituencies, particularly where they can squeeze Labour or Conservative votes locally. However, the most seats market is a much bigger ask, and their price reflects the scale of the national breakthrough they would need.

Your Party and Advance UK are both 250/1, while the Workers Party of Britain are 500/1. Those prices underline how unlikely the market considers a full general election breakthrough to be, but their presence in the betting is another sign of how crowded the political landscape has become.

For now, the next general election odds point to a tight Labour versus Reform battle at the top of the market. Starmer’s resignation announcement has not knocked Labour out of favouritism altogether, but it has left the race wide open, with Reform close behind and the Conservatives still searching for a clear route back into contention.