Betfair Hurdle Tips: Big Priced Pick Can Go Well

One of the most valuable handicaps in Britain takes place on Saturday at Newbury: The Betfair Hurdle. A host of big name horses, jockeys and trainers have scooped the prize over the years en route to the Cheltenham Festival, and although this year there doesn't look a Supreme contender in here there should still be a host of well handicapped horses battling it out. Billy Grimshaw previews the race and gives us his idea of the winner here...

With heavy ground now almost a certainty at Newbury come Saturday afternoon, it is no surprise to see as I begin to pen this preview Tellherthename has been declared a non-runner. One suspects there may be a few more horses withdrawn on account of the conditions before post time, but there should still be a big field for one of the highlights of every National Hunt season. The obvious place to start is with the gamble of the week from - you guessed it - the Willie Mullins yard. Ocastle Des Mottes was as big as 10/1 at the start of the week but once punters cottoned onto the fact he is 6lbs well in compared to his Irish mark, the cash steamed in.

He was backed into as short as 3/1, but is now at a more realistic price of 6s with CopyBet and that will make tonnes of appeal to punters who want an each-way bet. He could certainly be miles better than his rating and a Closutton debutant with winning French form does not often regress when joining Mullins. He is probably the most likely winner, and he won't dislike the heavy going, but in a race as competitive as this despite his claims I can swerve him happily.

The same can be said for co favourite Iberico Lord, who will be the main runner for JP and obviously has his claims. His Greatwood win from earlier in the season has produced a stack of winners in behind, and if it were not for his flop at Ascot last time out he may well be handicapped out of this contest. His Greatwood win was of course on very soft / heavy ground so the more rain that falls the better for this Nicky Henderson runner, but with his odds contracting all the time he makes little betting appeal to me, for all I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the firs five or six. Lookaway, who finished second that day and has since chased home my long term Albert Bartlett fancy Captain Teague, is a model of consistency but with his run style will find this incredibly tough with 11 stone 11 on his back.

Onlyamatteroftime has squeaked into the race due to the Tellherthename withdrawal, but it will take a brave punter to back him after running out the last twice. He is of course a low weight Willie Mullins runner in a big handicap, so must not be disregarded, but he isn't for me. What we are looking for is a horse that travels well and enjoys aiming at a red hot pace, which should be fairly certain in a big field race like this one.

Spirit D'Anou is one such horse and the Gary Moore runner is as progressive an animal as one is likely to find. He has won five of his last six starts and his latest win has had form boosts aplenty since that day. The trouble is the handicapper surely has him in his grip now after a massive 10lb rise in the weights. Luccia is another in this category and while she is undoubtedly still improving at just six, this will be some task off top weight.

Brentford Hope is one I massively respect for a brilliant young trainer in Harry Derham, with the horse having some outstanding flat form on soft and heavy conditions in his past career for Richard Hughes. He has not quite hit the heights over hurdles yet but Derham has proved himself a bit of a master with this type of horse and every drop of rain surely aids his chance. There are copious others in here with claims, as one can expect in a race so valuable, but at a huge 25/1 I am convinced GO DANTE is worth supporting each-way. He may have been sixth behind Iberico Lord in the aforementioned Greatwood, but he has a weight swing with the leaders that day and I think he will have improved considerably.

His win last time out over Doddiethegreat, who reopposes here, I feel is being underestimated and will in time work out as a smart bit of form. On the weights alone Doddiethegreat has a good chance of reversing that form with Olly Murphy's runner, but Go Dante was value for more than the winning margin to my eye and it is notable he was put away for this by connections. The heavy ground could be a concern but he is a strong traveller who will enjoy watching the chaos unfold in front of him before making a play late. Sean Bowen is back from injury and will be itching for more wins to pull clear of challenger in the Jockey's Championship Harry Cobden and this could be a massive feather in his cap.