How ground affects your bet

The going scale is useful information but the real trick is finding the gap between the official going description issued on the morning of the race and the going at the time of the race. It’s often significantly different and there’s value to be found in these cases. 

Ground is obviously a significant factor with regards to a horse’s chances, as most prefer quicker or slower surfaces, and significant changes can lead to non-runners, which can make a big difference to each-way bets in particular and all bets with regard to Rule 4s.

The going scale

The easiest way to assess the going is to attach a numerical value and that gives us valuable data with which to compare when looking at form. The GoingStick provides this and we’ve included a table below which explains how it works.

How is the going measured and declared?

The clerk of the course, who is responsible for maintaining the track’s surface, issues the latest going reading on the morning of the race and updates it throughout the course of the day and between every race throughout the card. 

It’s worth noting that the GoingStick provides a reading between 0 and 15 and the number matters more than the description as the more precise piece of information can give you an edge from a betting point of view. 

For example, if the ground is good to soft but right on the cusp of being soft, the exact GoingStick reading would be more pertinent information.

What does “in places” mean?

You will often see a going description which includes “in places”, such as good to soft, soft in places. Don’t take it lightly, as the extra description is usually important. Typically the soft in places part refers to inside rails or on bends, which can have a serious impact on the result. Therefore it’s often worth considering the ground to be soft in this scenario.

Finding a horse’s ground preference

A horse’s record on a certain going over an extended period of time is a good indicator of their preference but don’t be too put off by one or two below-par efforts. Taking a look at the pedigree can help, particularly the sire line, and the height of the horse’s action. 

Their general CV will tell you on what ground they have been mostly campaigned, which will give you some idea, and in some cases the trainer will mention a preference in interviews.

How ground affects the shape of a race

There are three main ways in which the shape of the race is impacted by the ground and it’s very important to consider the underfoot conditions when having a bet.

1. Pace: Early tempo is much quicker when the ground is fast and the emphasis is on speed rather than stamina, whereas slow ground races tend to be slower early on and stamina usually wins the day. 
2. Field size: Drastic going changes between when declarations are made and the time off the race often result in non-runners and this can impact your bet with the potential of Rule 4s and each-way terms being altered.
3. Predictability: Races tend to produce more consistent results on good or better ground and extreme conditions can lead to more unpredictable results.

Acting on a late going change

It is unusual for the ground to dry quickly but it can rapidly soften if there’s a substantial downpour. If you can place a bet after a going change update before the market has been altered, there’s a small opportunity to find a little bit of value.

How important is the going?

The best strategy is still to find the best horse in the race, or the best handicapped horse in a handicap, before then considering if the ground is suitable. 

The vast majority of British races are run with good somewhere in the description which is why extreme conditions either way can throw up unusual results. Use the going to help strengthen a view you have on a race, rather than using it as the basis for one.

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