How often do favourites win in horse racing?

The statistics suggest that favourites win roughly one of every three races in Britain, more specifically in the 30-35% range. There are many factors which can affect the likelihood of a favourite winning, including race type, field size and price and absolutely no guarantees. Casual punters can fall into the trap of assuming that the favourites are usually victorious.

How well do the market leaders fare?

As previously stated, favourites tend to win a third of all races across Britain, on average, and the statistics suggest that second favourites come out on top 18-21% of the time and third favourites come out on top in 12-15% of races. This means in total that the first three in the market tend to win 60-71% of British races, which equates to roughly two thirds.

What are the key factors to consider?

It’s important to consider the impact of the race type on the probability of a favourite winning as favourites have a much lower strike-rate in handicaps (26-29%) which is significant. Handicaps are designed to give every horse an equal chance of winning, which explains the variation, and that’s very important to remember when betting on handicaps.

Statistically speaking, more than half of races in Britain are handicaps, which means there’s a higher chance of winning favourites in other types of races. For example, novice hurdles and chases tend to go the way of the favourite 48-49% of the time, as the better horses have a significant advantage. Odds-on favourites win an even higher percentage of this race type.

Horses at bigger prices are at a significant disadvantage in novice hurdles and chases according to the statistics, as around 8% of horses priced at 8/1 or higher come out on top.

Big fields and top-level races

The best example of a big-field race is the Grand National, which has a maximum field of around 34 runners these days and almost anything can happen during the race. This is why there have been winners at such big prices over the years and favourites don’t fare as well.

Other big field handicaps like the Ebor on the Flat or the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival always have huge field sizes which can impact the competitiveness of the race and the likelihood of horses getting a clear or falling victim to a draw or pace bias.

Group 1 races on the Flat and Grade 1 races over jumps tend to produce winning favourites around 30% of the time, which is closer to the national average but still highlights the small margins that can make a difference to the result when the best of the best face off.

What this means when it comes to backing the favourite

Simply backing the favourite every time isn’t a winning strategy as winning one in three races with the shortest priced runner won’t provide a profit in the long run. There are always multiple factors to consider when placing a bet and use these stats as a starting point rather than a hard and fast rule which will always play out as you expect it to.

Frequently asked questions